πŸ€ NBA Model 2026-27 Β· paper trade Β· generated 2026-10-27 00:03 ET

How to read a card: the first sentence is the conclusion β€” who the model picks, what the book line says, and where they disagree. The numbers below are the inputs. Paper-trade phase: ratings run on 2025-26 priors + early-season noise. Rest/B2B shown and logged, not priced. Value flags are hypotheses, never bets. Quarter records are season history, not a prediction.
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Tue Oct 27 Β· 7:30 PM EDT Β· 10/27 - 7:30 PM EDT
Model says Boston Celtics by 19.1. The book line says Boston Celtics by 11.5. So the model leans Boston Celtics -11.5. Total: model 222.1, book 222.5 β€” leans under. Paper trade only β€” a test flag, not a bet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 BKN 1-2 vs BOS 2-1 Β· Q2 BKN 0-3 vs BOS 2-0-1 Β· Q3 BKN 1-2 vs BOS 2-1 Β· Q4 BKN 1-2 vs BOS 1-2
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:00 PM ET
Against the spread: BOS -11.5
Total points: Under 222.5
Winner: BOS (-575) Β· 92%
⏳ Locks at 7:00 PM ET
Model says
Boston Celtics by 19.1 Β· win chance 92%
Model total points
222.1 (gap -0.4 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -11.5 Β· total 222.5
moneyline +425 / -575
Model margin built from
efficiency +17.15 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+7.7 pts vs book line
Rest days
BKN 1d rest Β· BOS 0d rest πŸ” B2B
Efficiency (net rating)
BKN -10.5 Β· BOS +7.3
last season counts for 92%
Injury report: BKN 2 players Β· BOS 1 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +20.1 vs official +19.1 β€” BKN βˆ’0.0 (β€”) Β· BOS +1.0 (Devin Carter -1.0) Β· unknown value: Mikel Brown Jr., Tyler Bilodeau
πŸ“ PAPER TRADE flag: the model leans Boston Celtics by 7.7 pts vs the book line (5+ point bar). A test flag only β€” not a bet, not an edge.
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Boston Celtics +19.1 (92% to win outright). DK has Boston Celtics -11.5. Model-vs-line gap: +7.7 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+17.15) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS BOS; Locks at 7:00 PM ET.
Brooklyn Nets β€” strengths & weaknesses
Brooklyn Nets (BKN) ranks #29 at -10.5 net β€” 108.5 offense, 119.0 defense, 97.9 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ— bottom-third offense (108.5 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (119.0 allowed/100)
Boston Celtics β€” strengths & weaknesses
Boston Celtics (BOS) ranks #4 at +7.3 net β€” 120.4 offense, 113.1 defense, 94.8 pace. 2 games played; priors carry 92% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (120.4 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (113.1 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Boston Celtics's top-third offense (120.4 pts/100) against Brooklyn Nets's bottom-third defense (119.0 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Rest gap: Boston Celtics on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Tyler Bilodeau (Out for Brooklyn Nets β€” Shoulder Sprain).
One honesty note: we're 92% on last season's priors β€” this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: the 7.7pt disagreement on Boston Celtics is the one to watch as the forward test β€” hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
Brooklyn Nets: 1d rest
Boston Celtics: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Brooklyn Nets: Mikel Brown Jr. (Day-To-Day β€” Rest (return 2026-10-27)); Tyler Bilodeau (Out β€” Shoulder Sprain (return 2026-10-30)).
Boston Celtics: Devin Carter (Out β€” Illness (return 2026-11-08)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -11.5
Model total 222.1 vs listed 222.5 (edge -0.4) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
Tue Oct 27 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· 10/27 - 8:00 PM EDT
Model says Detroit Pistons by 1.7. The book line says New York Knicks by 3.5. So the model leans Detroit Pistons +3.5. Total: model 224.8, book 218.5 β€” leans over. Paper trade only β€” a test flag, not a bet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 DET 2-1 vs NY 3-0 Β· Q2 DET 0-2-1 vs NY 1-2 Β· Q3 DET 2-1 vs NY 0-2-1 Β· Q4 DET 2-1 vs NY 2-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Against the spread: DET +3.5
Total points: Over 218.5
Winner: DET (+130) Β· 55%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model says
Detroit Pistons by 1.7 Β· win chance 55%
Model total points
224.8 (gap +6.3 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -3.5 Β· total 218.5
moneyline +130 / -155
Model margin built from
efficiency -3.72 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-5.2 pts vs book line
Rest days
DET 1d rest Β· NY 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
DET +8.7 Β· NY +5.0
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: DET 3 players Β· NY 1 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +2.3 vs official -1.7 β€” DET βˆ’3.6 (Isaiah Joe 0.3, Ausar Thompson 0.4, Jalen Duren 2.9) Β· NY +0.4 (Jose Alvarado -0.4)
πŸ“ PAPER TRADE flag: the model leans Detroit Pistons by 5.2 pts vs the book line (5+ point bar). A test flag only β€” not a bet, not an edge.
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes New York Knicks -1.7 (45% to win outright). DK has New York Knicks -3.5. Model-vs-line gap: -5.2 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-3.72) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS DET; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Detroit Pistons β€” strengths & weaknesses
Detroit Pistons (DET) ranks #2 at +8.7 net β€” 118.0 offense, 109.2 defense, 99.4 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (118.0 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (109.2 allowed/100)
New York Knicks β€” strengths & weaknesses
New York Knicks (NY) ranks #7 at +5.0 net β€” 117.7 offense, 112.7 defense, 97.1 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (117.7 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (112.7 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Detroit Pistons's elite offense runs into New York Knicks's lockdown defense β€” strength on strength.
New York Knicks's elite offense runs into Detroit Pistons's lockdown defense β€” strength on strength.
Torque's read
Strength on strength decides this one β€” the elite-offense-vs-lockdown-defense battle is the game.
The biggest swing factor is Jalen Duren (Out for Detroit Pistons β€” Hamstring Strain).
Verdict: the 5.2pt disagreement on Detroit Pistons is the one to watch as the forward test β€” hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
Detroit Pistons: 1d rest
New York Knicks: 1d rest
Injuries
Detroit Pistons: Isaiah Joe (Day-To-Day β€” Hip Bruise (return 2026-10-27)); Ausar Thompson (Day-To-Day β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-27)); Jalen Duren (Out β€” Hamstring Strain (return 2026-11-09)).
New York Knicks: Jose Alvarado (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-28)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -3.5
Model total 224.8 vs listed 218.5 (edge +6.3) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
Tue Oct 27 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· 10/27 - 8:00 PM EDT
Model says San Antonio Spurs by 19.9. The book line says San Antonio Spurs by 18.5. So the model leans San Antonio Spurs -18.5. Total: model 230.6, book 230.5 β€” leans over. The injury shadow disagrees β€” it leans Sacramento Kings. Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Quarter records so far: Q1 SAC 2-1 vs SA 1-2 Β· Q2 SAC 1-2 vs SA 2-1 Β· Q3 SAC 1-2 vs SA 1-2 Β· Q4 SAC 1-2 vs SA 2-0-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Against the spread: SA -18.5
Total points: Over 230.5
Winner: SA (-1800) Β· 93%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model says
San Antonio Spurs by 19.9 Β· win chance 93%
Model total points
230.6 (gap +0.1 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -18.5 Β· total 230.5
moneyline +1000 / -1800
Model margin built from
efficiency +17.90 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+1.4 pts vs book line
Rest days
SAC 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· SA 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
SAC -10.6 Β· SA +7.3
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: SAC 4 players Β· SA 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +14.7 vs official +19.9 β€” SAC +4.4 (Dylan Cardwell -0.8, Maxime Raynaud -1.3, Keegan Murray -2.2) Β· SA βˆ’0.8 (Tobias Harris 0.8) Β· unknown value: Ben Simmons, Jayden Quaintance
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes San Antonio Spurs +19.9 (93% to win outright). DK has San Antonio Spurs -18.5. Model-vs-line gap: +1.4 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+17.90) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS SA; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Sacramento Kings β€” strengths & weaknesses
Sacramento Kings (SAC) ranks #30 at -10.6 net β€” 111.0 offense, 121.6 defense, 99.4 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ— bottom-third offense (111.0 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (121.6 allowed/100)
San Antonio Spurs β€” strengths & weaknesses
San Antonio Spurs (SA) ranks #3 at +7.3 net β€” 118.4 offense, 111.1 defense, 100.1 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (118.4 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (111.1 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
San Antonio Spurs's top-third offense (118.4 pts/100) against Sacramento Kings's bottom-third defense (121.6 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Rest gap: Sacramento Kings on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Dylan Cardwell (Out for Sacramento Kings β€” Calf Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Sacramento Kings: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
San Antonio Spurs: 1d rest
Injuries
Sacramento Kings: Dylan Cardwell (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-11-06)); Maxime Raynaud (Out β€” Knee Dislocated (return 2026-11-10)); Keegan Murray (Out β€” Ankle (return 2026-11-06)); Ben Simmons (Out β€” Achilles Surgery (return 2027-10-01)).
San Antonio Spurs: Tobias Harris (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-10-28)); Jayden Quaintance (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-12-03)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -18.5
Model total 230.6 vs listed 230.5 (edge +0.1) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Tue Oct 27 Β· 11:00 PM EDT Β· 10/27 - 11:00 PM EDT
Model says Los Angeles Lakers by 3.4. The book line says Los Angeles Lakers by 2.5. So the model leans Los Angeles Lakers -2.5. Total: model 231.1, book 236.5 β€” leans under. Locks at 10:30 PM ET.
Quarter records so far: Q1 POR 1-1 vs LAL 1-2 Β· Q2 POR 2-0 vs LAL 3-0 Β· Q3 POR 2-0 vs LAL 2-0-1 Β· Q4 POR 0-1-1 vs LAL 1-2
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 10:30 PM ET
Against the spread: LAL -2.5
Total points: Under 236.5
Winner: LAL (-142) Β· 60%
⏳ Locks at 10:30 PM ET
Model says
Los Angeles Lakers by 3.4 Β· win chance 60%
Model total points
231.1 (gap -5.4 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -2.5 Β· total 236.5
moneyline +120 / -142
Model margin built from
efficiency +1.43 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+0.9 pts vs book line
Rest days
POR 2d rest Β· LAL 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
POR +1.7 Β· LAL +3.1
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: POR 4 players Β· LAL 1 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +2.6 vs official +3.4 β€” POR +1.4 (Scoot Henderson -0.3, Chris Youngblood -0.3, Shaedon Sharpe -0.9) Β· LAL +0.6 (Adou Thiero -0.6)
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Los Angeles Lakers +3.4 (60% to win outright). DK has Los Angeles Lakers -2.5. Model-vs-line gap: +0.9 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+1.43) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS LAL; Locks at 10:30 PM ET.
Portland Trail Blazers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Portland Trail Blazers (POR) ranks #14 at +1.7 net β€” 115.3 offense, 113.6 defense, 100.5 pace. 2 games played; priors carry 92% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test β€” a league-average profile.
Los Angeles Lakers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Los Angeles Lakers (LAL) ranks #12 at +3.1 net β€” 119.2 offense, 116.1 defense, 98.7 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (119.2 pts/100)
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test β€” neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates β€” this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Chris Youngblood (Out for Portland Trail Blazers β€” Ankle Soreness).
One honesty note: we're 92% on last season's priors β€” this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Portland Trail Blazers: 2d rest
Los Angeles Lakers: 1d rest
Injuries
Portland Trail Blazers: Branden Carlson (Day-To-Day β€” Concussion Concussion (return 2026-10-27)); Scoot Henderson (Day-To-Day β€” Ankle Soreness (return 2026-10-27)); Chris Youngblood (Out β€” Ankle Soreness (return 2026-10-29)); Shaedon Sharpe (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2027-03-02)).
Los Angeles Lakers: Adou Thiero (Out β€” Knee Inflammation (return 2026-10-28)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -2.5
Model total 231.1 vs listed 236.5 (edge -5.4) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 7:00 PM EDT
Model says Atlanta Hawks by 5.9. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 MIA 1-2-1 vs ATL 2-2 Β· Q2 MIA 1-3 vs ATL 2-1-1 Β· Q3 MIA 1-3 vs ATL 1-2-1 Β· Q4 MIA 2-2 vs ATL 3-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Against the spread: MIA
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: ATL (β€”) Β· 67%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model says
Atlanta Hawks by 5.9 Β· win chance 67%
Model total points
236.1 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency +3.94 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
MIA 1d rest Β· ATL 0d rest πŸ” B2B
Efficiency (net rating)
MIA +0.1 Β· ATL +4.0
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: MIA 0 players Β· ATL 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +6.3 vs official +5.9 β€” MIA βˆ’0.0 (β€”) Β· ATL +0.4 (Mouhamed Gueye -0.4) Β· unknown value: Henri Veesaar
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Atlanta Hawks +5.9 (67% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+3.94) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS MIA; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Miami Heat β€” strengths & weaknesses
Miami Heat (MIA) ranks #17 at +0.1 net β€” 115.4 offense, 115.2 defense, 103.4 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (103.4 pace)
Atlanta Hawks β€” strengths & weaknesses
Atlanta Hawks (ATL) ranks #9 at +4.0 net β€” 116.8 offense, 112.8 defense, 101.8 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (112.8 allowed/100)
βœ“ plays fast (101.8 pace)
The exploitation map
Rest gap: Atlanta Hawks on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Rest is the story tonight β€” a back-to-back against fresh legs, and the model's 0.0 rest price is the thing to be honest about.
The biggest swing factor is Mouhamed Gueye (Out for Atlanta Hawks β€” Foot Fracture).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Miami Heat: 1d rest
Atlanta Hawks: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Atlanta Hawks: Mouhamed Gueye (Out β€” Foot Fracture (return 2026-11-20)); Henri Veesaar (Out β€” Knee (return 2027-07-01)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 7:00 PM EDT
Model says Cleveland Cavaliers by 15.9. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 WSH 3-1 vs CLE 2-1 Β· Q2 WSH 1-3 vs CLE 2-1 Β· Q3 WSH 3-1 vs CLE 2-1 Β· Q4 WSH 2-2 vs CLE 0-2-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Against the spread: WSH
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: CLE (β€”) Β· 88%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model says
Cleveland Cavaliers by 15.9 Β· win chance 88%
Model total points
235.4 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency +13.86 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
WSH 1d rest Β· CLE 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
WSH -10.1 Β· CLE +3.6
last season counts for 92%
Injury report: WSH 4 players Β· CLE 0 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +14.4 vs official +15.9 β€” WSH +1.5 (Jamir Watkins -1.4) Β· CLE βˆ’0.0 (β€”) Β· unknown value: AJ Dybantsa
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Cleveland Cavaliers +15.9 (88% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+13.86) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS WSH; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Washington Wizards β€” strengths & weaknesses
Washington Wizards (WSH) ranks #28 at -10.1 net β€” 111.2 offense, 121.3 defense, 101.8 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (101.8 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (111.2 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (121.3 allowed/100)
Cleveland Cavaliers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE) ranks #11 at +3.6 net β€” 118.2 offense, 114.6 defense, 100.6 pace. 2 games played; priors carry 92% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (118.2 pts/100)
βœ“ plays fast (100.6 pace)
The exploitation map
Cleveland Cavaliers's top-third offense (118.2 pts/100) against Washington Wizards's bottom-third defense (121.3 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is AJ Dybantsa (Out for Washington Wizards β€” Ankle Sprain).
One honesty note: we're 92% on last season's priors β€” this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Washington Wizards: 1d rest
Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d rest
Injuries
Washington Wizards: Justin Champagnie (Day-To-Day β€” Foot Not Specified (return 2026-10-28)); AJ Dybantsa (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-28)); Tristan Vukcevic (Out β€” Hip Pinched Nerve (return 2026-11-02)); Jamir Watkins (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2027-04-02)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 7:00 PM EDT
Model says Detroit Pistons by 7.6. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 CHA 1-2-1 vs DET 2-1 Β· Q2 CHA 3-1 vs DET 0-2-1 Β· Q3 CHA 2-2 vs DET 2-1 Β· Q4 CHA 1-3 vs DET 2-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Against the spread: CHA
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: DET (β€”) Β· 71%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model says
Detroit Pistons by 7.6 Β· win chance 71%
Model total points
225.4 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency +5.64 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
CHA 1d rest Β· DET 2d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
CHA +3.0 Β· DET +8.7
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: CHA 4 players Β· DET 3 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +5.8 vs official +7.6 β€” CHA βˆ’1.8 (Coby White -0.7, Kon Knueppel 1.8, Grant Williams 0.7) Β· DET βˆ’3.6 (Isaiah Joe 0.3, Ausar Thompson 0.4, Jalen Duren 2.9) Β· unknown value: Kylan Boswell
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Detroit Pistons +7.6 (71% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+5.64) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS CHA; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Charlotte Hornets β€” strengths & weaknesses
Charlotte Hornets (CHA) ranks #13 at +3.0 net β€” 117.3 offense, 114.3 defense, 97.2 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (117.3 pts/100)
Detroit Pistons β€” strengths & weaknesses
Detroit Pistons (DET) ranks #2 at +8.7 net β€” 118.0 offense, 109.2 defense, 99.4 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (118.0 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (109.2 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Charlotte Hornets's elite offense runs into Detroit Pistons's lockdown defense β€” strength on strength.
Torque's read
Strength on strength decides this one β€” the elite-offense-vs-lockdown-defense battle is the game.
The biggest swing factor is Coby White (Out for Charlotte Hornets β€” Calf Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Charlotte Hornets: 1d rest
Detroit Pistons: 2d rest
Injuries
Charlotte Hornets: Coby White (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-10-31)); Kon Knueppel (Out β€” Hamstring (return 2026-10-31)); Grant Williams (Out β€” Hamstring (return 2026-10-31)); Kylan Boswell (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-11-02)).
Detroit Pistons: Isaiah Joe (Day-To-Day β€” Hip Bruise (return 2026-10-27)); Ausar Thompson (Day-To-Day β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-27)); Jalen Duren (Out β€” Hamstring Strain (return 2026-11-09)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 7:00 PM EDT
Model says Philadelphia 76ers by 4.8. The book line says Philadelphia 76ers by 1.5. So the model leans Philadelphia 76ers -1.5. Total: model 230.2, book 238.5 β€” leans under. Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Quarter records so far: Q1 PHI 1-3 vs IND 1-3 Β· Q2 PHI 0-3-1 vs IND 2-2 Β· Q3 PHI 4-0 vs IND 3-1 Β· Q4 PHI 2-2 vs IND 3-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Against the spread: PHI -1.5
Total points: Under 238.5
Winner: PHI (-125) Β· 64%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model says
Philadelphia 76ers by 4.8 Β· win chance 64%
Model total points
230.2 (gap -8.3 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread 1.5 Β· total 238.5
moneyline -125 / +105
Model margin built from
efficiency -6.84 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-3.3 pts vs book line
Rest days
PHI 2d rest Β· IND 0d rest πŸ” B2B
Efficiency (net rating)
PHI +0.4 Β· IND -6.4
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: PHI 6 players Β· IND 5 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -2.7 vs official -4.8 β€” PHI +0.4 (Jabari Walker -0.2, Joel Embiid 0.8, Dominick Barlow -0.6, Ariel Hukporti -0.4) Β· IND +2.6 (Ben Sheppard -1.3, Andrew Nembhard -0.5, T.J. McConnell 0.9, Ivica Zubac -0.2, Johnny Furphy -1.4) Β· unknown value: Tacko Fall
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Indiana Pacers -4.8 (36% to win outright). DK has Philadelphia 76ers -1.5. Model-vs-line gap: -3.3 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-6.84) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS PHI; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Philadelphia 76ers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Philadelphia 76ers (PHI) ranks #16 at +0.4 net β€” 113.8 offense, 113.4 defense, 100.2 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (113.4 allowed/100)
βœ— bottom-third offense (113.8 pts/100)
Indiana Pacers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Indiana Pacers (IND) ranks #25 at -6.4 net β€” 111.7 offense, 118.1 defense, 101.3 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (101.3 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (111.7 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (118.1 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
The worst faucet meets a leaky pipe: Philadelphia 76ers (113.8 pts/100) may not punish Indiana Pacers's 118.1 allowed.
Rest gap: Indiana Pacers on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The key question is whether the weak offense can punish the leaky defense β€” usually it can't, and that decides the game.
The biggest swing factor is Tacko Fall (Out for Philadelphia 76ers β€” Quadriceps Strain).
Verdict: a mild lean at best β€” under the 5pt bar, not a play.
Rest
Philadelphia 76ers: 2d rest
Indiana Pacers: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Philadelphia 76ers: Jabari Walker (Day-To-Day β€” Knee Soreness (return 2026-10-28)); VJ Edgecombe (Day-To-Day β€” Abdomen Bruise (return 2026-10-28)); Joel Embiid (Day-To-Day β€” Heel (return 2026-10-28)); Tacko Fall (Out β€” Quadriceps Strain (return 2026-10-28)).
Indiana Pacers: Ben Sheppard (Out β€” Knee (return 2026-12-01)); Andrew Nembhard (Out β€” Back Soreness (return 2026-10-28)); T.J. McConnell (Out β€” Hamstring Strain (return 2026-10-28)); Ivica Zubac (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-28)).
Line movement
Spread steady at +1.5
Model total 230.2 vs listed 238.5 (edge -8.3) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:30 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 7:30 PM EDT
Model says Toronto Raptors by 5.9. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 ORL 1-2 vs TOR 2-1 Β· Q2 ORL 1-2 vs TOR 2-1 Β· Q3 ORL 1-1-1 vs TOR 1-2 Β· Q4 ORL 2-1 vs TOR 3-0
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:00 PM ET
Against the spread: ORL
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: TOR (β€”) Β· 67%
⏳ Locks at 7:00 PM ET
Model says
Toronto Raptors by 5.9 Β· win chance 67%
Model total points
226.6 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency +3.93 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
ORL 2d rest Β· TOR 2d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
ORL -0.2 Β· TOR +3.7
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: ORL 5 players Β· TOR 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +6.3 vs official +5.9 β€” ORL βˆ’1.7 (Jalen Suggs 1.4, Jonathan Isaac -0.3, Paolo Banchero 1.0, Noah Penda -0.4) Β· TOR βˆ’1.3 (Kawhi Leonard 1.3) Β· unknown value: Izaiyah Nelson, Nate Bittle
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Toronto Raptors +5.9 (67% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+3.93) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS ORL; Locks at 7:00 PM ET.
Orlando Magic β€” strengths & weaknesses
Orlando Magic (ORL) ranks #19 at -0.2 net β€” 113.8 offense, 114.1 defense, 100.4 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ— bottom-third offense (113.8 pts/100)
Toronto Raptors β€” strengths & weaknesses
Toronto Raptors (TOR) ranks #10 at +3.7 net β€” 115.0 offense, 111.3 defense, 99.2 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (111.3 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test β€” neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates β€” this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Jalen Suggs (Out for Orlando Magic β€” Knee).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Orlando Magic: 2d rest
Toronto Raptors: 2d rest
Injuries
Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs (Out β€” Knee (return 2026-11-10)); Jonathan Isaac (Out β€” Knee Not Specified (return 2026-10-28)); Paolo Banchero (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-11-22)); Noah Penda (Out β€” Hamstring Strain (return 2026-11-18)).
Toronto Raptors: Kawhi Leonard (Day-To-Day β€” Knee Inflammation (return 2026-10-28)); Nate Bittle (Out β€” Foot Fracture (return 2026-10-28)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls
Wed Oct 28 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 8:00 PM EDT
Model says New York Knicks by 8.9. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 NY 3-0 vs CHI 0-4 Β· Q2 NY 1-2 vs CHI 2-1-1 Β· Q3 NY 0-2-1 vs CHI 0-4 Β· Q4 NY 2-1 vs CHI 2-2
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Against the spread: NY
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: NY (β€”) Β· 75%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model says
New York Knicks by 8.9 Β· win chance 75%
Model total points
230.7 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency -10.94 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
NY 2d rest Β· CHI 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
NY +5.0 Β· CHI -6.0
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: NY 1 players Β· CHI 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -8.0 vs official -8.9 β€” NY +0.4 (Jose Alvarado -0.4) Β· CHI +1.4 (Nic Claxton 0.5, Patrick Williams -1.9)
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Chicago Bulls -8.9 (25% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-10.94) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS NY; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
New York Knicks β€” strengths & weaknesses
New York Knicks (NY) ranks #7 at +5.0 net β€” 117.7 offense, 112.7 defense, 97.1 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (117.7 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (112.7 allowed/100)
Chicago Bulls β€” strengths & weaknesses
Chicago Bulls (CHI) ranks #24 at -6.0 net β€” 112.2 offense, 118.2 defense, 103.1 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (103.1 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (112.2 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (118.2 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
New York Knicks's top-third offense (117.7 pts/100) against Chicago Bulls's bottom-third defense (118.2 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Pace clash: Chicago Bulls wants it fast (103.1) while New York Knicks slows it down (97.1).
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Jose Alvarado (Out for New York Knicks β€” Ankle Sprain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
New York Knicks: 2d rest
Chicago Bulls: 1d rest
Injuries
New York Knicks: Jose Alvarado (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-28)).
Chicago Bulls: Nic Claxton (Out β€” Hamstring (return 2026-11-04)); Patrick Williams (Out β€” Groin Soreness (return 2026-10-28)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 8:00 PM EDT
Model says Houston Rockets by 10.4. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 HOU 3-1 vs MIL 2-2 Β· Q2 HOU 2-1-1 vs MIL 2-2 Β· Q3 HOU 2-1-1 vs MIL 2-2 Β· Q4 HOU 1-2-1 vs MIL 1-3
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Against the spread: HOU
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: HOU (β€”) Β· 78%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model says
Houston Rockets by 10.4 Β· win chance 78%
Model total points
226.5 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency -12.37 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
HOU 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· MIL 0d rest πŸ” B2B
Efficiency (net rating)
HOU +5.9 Β· MIL -6.8
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: HOU 2 players Β· MIL 0 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -11.9 vs official -10.4 β€” HOU +1.5 (Steven Adams -0.2, Marcus Smart -1.3) Β· MIL βˆ’0.0 (β€”)
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Milwaukee Bucks -10.4 (22% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-12.37) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS HOU; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Houston Rockets β€” strengths & weaknesses
Houston Rockets (HOU) ranks #5 at +5.9 net β€” 119.1 offense, 113.2 defense, 96.4 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (119.1 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (113.2 allowed/100)
Milwaukee Bucks β€” strengths & weaknesses
Milwaukee Bucks (MIL) ranks #26 at -6.8 net β€” 112.9 offense, 119.6 defense, 98.6 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ— bottom-third offense (112.9 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (119.6 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Houston Rockets's top-third offense (119.1 pts/100) against Milwaukee Bucks's bottom-third defense (119.6 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Rest gap: Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Steven Adams (Out for Houston Rockets β€” Calf Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Houston Rockets: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Milwaukee Bucks: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Houston Rockets: Steven Adams (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-11-02)); Marcus Smart (Out β€” Forearm Strain (return 2026-10-28)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Wed Oct 28 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 8:00 PM EDT
Model says Minnesota Timberwolves by 9.5. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 GS 2-1 vs MIN 4-0 Β· Q2 GS 0-3 vs MIN 3-1 Β· Q3 GS 1-2 vs MIN 3-1 Β· Q4 GS 2-1 vs MIN 1-2-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Against the spread: GS
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: MIN (β€”) Β· 76%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model says
Minnesota Timberwolves by 9.5 Β· win chance 76%
Model total points
229.0 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency +7.53 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
GS 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· MIN 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
GS -1.9 Β· MIN +5.7
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: GS 3 players Β· MIN 1 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +12.5 vs official +9.5 β€” GS βˆ’3.5 (Jimmy Butler III 3.6) Β· MIN βˆ’0.5 (Donte DiVincenzo 0.5) Β· unknown value: Kristaps Porzingis
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 (76% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+7.53) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS GS; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Golden State Warriors β€” strengths & weaknesses
Golden State Warriors (GS) ranks #20 at -1.9 net β€” 114.7 offense, 116.6 defense, 98.6 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test β€” a league-average profile.
Minnesota Timberwolves β€” strengths & weaknesses
Minnesota Timberwolves (MIN) ranks #6 at +5.7 net β€” 117.1 offense, 111.4 defense, 100.6 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (111.4 allowed/100)
βœ“ plays fast (100.6 pace)
The exploitation map
Pace clash: Minnesota Timberwolves wants it fast (100.6) while Golden State Warriors slows it down (98.6).
Rest gap: Golden State Warriors on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
This one is won or lost in the pace battle β€” whoever imposes their tempo has the edge.
The biggest swing factor is Kristaps Porzingis (Out for Golden State Warriors β€” Illness).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Golden State Warriors: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 1d rest
Injuries
Golden State Warriors: Kristaps Porzingis (Out β€” Illness (return 2026-12-01)); Moses Moody (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-12-01)); Jimmy Butler III (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2027-01-02)).
Minnesota Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo (Out β€” Achilles Surgery (return 2027-04-02)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Wed Oct 28 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 8:00 PM EDT
Model says Denver Nuggets by 6.8. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 DEN 1-1 vs NO 1-2 Β· Q2 DEN 1-1 vs NO 2-1 Β· Q3 DEN 0-2 vs NO 2-1 Β· Q4 DEN 1-1 vs NO 0-3
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Against the spread: DEN
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: DEN (β€”) Β· 69%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model says
Denver Nuggets by 6.8 Β· win chance 69%
Model total points
234.9 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency -8.84 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
DEN 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· NO 2d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
DEN +4.5 Β· NO -4.3
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: DEN 4 players Β· NO 1 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -8.3 vs official -6.8 β€” DEN +2.2 (Cameron Johnson -0.4, Spencer Jones -1.1, Julian Strawther -0.7) Β· NO +0.7 (Yves Missi -0.7) Β· unknown value: Alpha Diallo
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes New Orleans Pelicans -6.8 (31% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-8.84) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS DEN; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Denver Nuggets β€” strengths & weaknesses
Denver Nuggets (DEN) ranks #8 at +4.5 net β€” 121.6 offense, 117.0 defense, 98.3 pace. 2 games played; priors carry 92% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (121.6 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (117.0 allowed/100)
New Orleans Pelicans β€” strengths & weaknesses
New Orleans Pelicans (NO) ranks #22 at -4.3 net β€” 114.8 offense, 119.1 defense, 100.5 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ— bottom-third defense (119.1 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Denver Nuggets's top-third offense (121.6 pts/100) against New Orleans Pelicans's bottom-third defense (119.1 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Rest gap: Denver Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Cameron Johnson (Out for Denver Nuggets β€” Ankle Sprain).
One honesty note: we're 92% on last season's priors β€” this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Denver Nuggets: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
New Orleans Pelicans: 2d rest
Injuries
Denver Nuggets: Cameron Johnson (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-28)); Alpha Diallo (Out β€” Wrist (return 2026-10-28)); Spencer Jones (Out β€” Hamstring Not Specified (return 2026-10-28)); Julian Strawther (Out β€” Knee Sprain (return 2026-11-29)).
New Orleans Pelicans: Yves Missi (Out β€” Knee Bruise (return 2026-11-02)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:00 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 9:00 PM EDT
Model says San Antonio Spurs by 13.8. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 SA 1-2 vs UTAH 3-1 Β· Q2 SA 2-1 vs UTAH 2-2 Β· Q3 SA 1-2 vs UTAH 0-3-1 Β· Q4 SA 2-0-1 vs UTAH 2-2
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 8:30 PM ET
Against the spread: SA
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: SA (β€”) Β· 85%
⏳ Locks at 8:30 PM ET
Model says
San Antonio Spurs by 13.8 Β· win chance 85%
Model total points
235.7 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency -15.81 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
SA 2d rest Β· UTAH 0d rest πŸ” B2B
Efficiency (net rating)
SA +7.3 Β· UTAH -8.3
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: SA 2 players Β· UTAH 5 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -13.4 vs official -13.8 β€” SA βˆ’0.8 (Tobias Harris 0.8) Β· UTAH βˆ’0.4 (Lauri Markkanen 0.5, Jaxson Hayes 0.5, Trey Alexander -0.4) Β· unknown value: Jayden Quaintance, Jusuf Nurkic
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Utah Jazz -13.8 (15% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-15.81) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS SA; Locks at 8:30 PM ET.
San Antonio Spurs β€” strengths & weaknesses
San Antonio Spurs (SA) ranks #3 at +7.3 net β€” 118.4 offense, 111.1 defense, 100.1 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (118.4 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (111.1 allowed/100)
Utah Jazz β€” strengths & weaknesses
Utah Jazz (UTAH) ranks #27 at -8.3 net β€” 114.1 offense, 122.4 defense, 102.2 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (102.2 pace)
βœ— bottom-third defense (122.4 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
San Antonio Spurs's top-third offense (118.4 pts/100) against Utah Jazz's bottom-third defense (122.4 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Rest gap: Utah Jazz on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Tobias Harris (Out for San Antonio Spurs β€” Calf Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
San Antonio Spurs: 2d rest
Utah Jazz: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
San Antonio Spurs: Tobias Harris (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-10-28)); Jayden Quaintance (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-12-03)).
Utah Jazz: Lauri Markkanen (Day-To-Day β€” Wrist Not Specified (return 2026-10-28)); Jaren Jackson Jr. (Day-To-Day β€” Knee Not Specified (return 2026-10-28)); Jaxson Hayes (Out β€” Shoulder Soreness (return 2026-10-28)); Trey Alexander (Out β€” Knee Bruise (return 2026-10-28)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:30 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 9:30 PM EDT
Model says Oklahoma City Thunder by 14.5. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 OKC 3-1 vs DAL 1-3 Β· Q2 OKC 2-2 vs DAL 2-2 Β· Q3 OKC 2-1-1 vs DAL 2-2 Β· Q4 OKC 2-2 vs DAL 2-2
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
Against the spread: OKC
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: OKC (β€”) Β· 86%
⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
Model says
Oklahoma City Thunder by 14.5 Β· win chance 86%
Model total points
226.9 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency -16.54 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
OKC 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· DAL 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
OKC +11.1 Β· DAL -5.4
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: OKC 7 players Β· DAL 6 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -10.1 vs official -14.5 β€” OKC βˆ’4.6 (Alex Caruso 0.2, Jalen Williams 1.2, Cason Wallace 0.7, Chet Holmgren 2.5) Β· DAL βˆ’0.1 (Caleb Martin -0.7, Naji Marshall -0.4, Santi Aldama 1.0, Dereck Lively II 0.2) Β· unknown value: Nikola Topic, Otega Oweh, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic, Thomas Sorber
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Dallas Mavericks -14.5 (14% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-16.54) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS OKC; Locks at 9:00 PM ET.
Oklahoma City Thunder β€” strengths & weaknesses
Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) ranks #1 at +11.1 net β€” 117.5 offense, 106.4 defense, 99.3 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (117.5 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (106.4 allowed/100)
Dallas Mavericks β€” strengths & weaknesses
Dallas Mavericks (DAL) ranks #23 at -5.4 net β€” 111.2 offense, 116.6 defense, 101.6 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (101.6 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (111.2 pts/100)
The exploitation map
Rest gap: Oklahoma City Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Rest is the story tonight β€” a back-to-back against fresh legs, and the model's 0.0 rest price is the thing to be honest about.
The biggest swing factor is Jalen Williams (Out for Oklahoma City Thunder β€” Leg Fracture).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Oklahoma City Thunder: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Dallas Mavericks: 1d rest
Injuries
Oklahoma City Thunder: Alex Caruso (Day-To-Day β€” Ankle (return 2026-10-28)); Jalen Williams (Out β€” Leg Fracture (return 2027-03-02)); Cason Wallace (Out β€” Shoulder (return 2027-03-02)); Nikola Topic (Out β€” Back (return 2026-10-28)).
Dallas Mavericks: Sergio de Larrea (Day-To-Day β€” Knee Strain (return 2026-10-28)); Caleb Martin (Out β€” Thumb Sprain (return 2026-11-02)); Naji Marshall (Out β€” Illness (return 2026-10-28)); Tarik Biberovic (Out β€” Heel Inflammation (return 2026-11-02)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Wed Oct 28 Β· 10:30 PM EDT Β· 10/28 - 10:30 PM EDT
Model says Los Angeles Clippers by 0.4. No book line yet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 LAL 1-2 vs LAC 2-1 Β· Q2 LAL 3-0 vs LAC 1-2 Β· Q3 LAL 2-0-1 vs LAC 1-2 Β· Q4 LAL 1-2 vs LAC 2-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 10:00 PM ET
Against the spread: LAL
Total points: Under β€”
Winner: LAC (β€”) Β· 51%
⏳ Locks at 10:00 PM ET
Model says
Los Angeles Clippers by 0.4 Β· win chance 51%
Model total points
228.5 (gap β€” vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread β€” Β· total β€”
moneyline β€” / β€”
Model margin built from
efficiency -1.63 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
no line yet
Rest days
LAL 2d rest Β· LAC 2d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
LAL +3.1 Β· LAC +1.5
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: LAL 1 players Β· LAC 0 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -0.2 vs official +0.4 β€” LAL +0.6 (Adou Thiero -0.6) Β· LAC βˆ’0.0 (β€”)
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Los Angeles Clippers +0.4 (51% to win outright).
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-1.63) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS LAL; Locks at 10:00 PM ET.
Los Angeles Lakers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Los Angeles Lakers (LAL) ranks #12 at +3.1 net β€” 119.2 offense, 116.1 defense, 98.7 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (119.2 pts/100)
Los Angeles Clippers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Los Angeles Clippers (LAC) ranks #15 at +1.5 net β€” 116.5 offense, 115.0 defense, 97.2 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test β€” a league-average profile.
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test β€” neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates β€” this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Adou Thiero (Out for Los Angeles Lakers β€” Knee Inflammation).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Los Angeles Lakers: 2d rest
Los Angeles Clippers: 2d rest
Injuries
Los Angeles Lakers: Adou Thiero (Out β€” Knee Inflammation (return 2026-10-28)).
Line movement
No opener captured yet today.
Forward-test hypothesis only. These are the model's strongest reads for this slate β€” not bets, not edges. Locked picks are the official basis; pre-lock rows are early looks β€” not official. Every locked pick is graded from game one (Record tab); the board is judged as a forward test after ~100 graded plays with CLV tracked.

Top spread reads ranked by gap vs book line

#GameModel sideModel marginGap vs bookBook spreadBasis
#1Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Tue Oct 27 · 7:30 PM EDT		Boston Celtics+19.1+7.7-11.5⏳ Locks at 7:00 PM ET
#2Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
Tue Oct 27 · 8:00 PM EDT		Detroit Pistons-1.7-5.2-3.5⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#3Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Wed Oct 28 · 7:00 PM EDT		Philadelphia 76ers-4.8-3.31.5⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#4Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
Tue Oct 27 · 8:00 PM EDT		San Antonio Spurs+19.9+1.4-18.5⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#5Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Tue Oct 27 · 11:00 PM EDT		Los Angeles Lakers+3.4+0.9-2.5⏳ Locks at 10:30 PM ET

Top moneyline reads ranked by model win chance

#GameModel sideWin chanceBook MLBasis
#1Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
Tue Oct 27 · 8:00 PM EDT		San Antonio Spurs93%-1800⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#2Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Tue Oct 27 · 7:30 PM EDT		Boston Celtics92%-575⏳ Locks at 7:00 PM ET
#3Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Wed Oct 28 · 7:00 PM EDT		Philadelphia 76ers64%-125⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#4Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Tue Oct 27 · 11:00 PM EDT		Los Angeles Lakers60%-142⏳ Locks at 10:30 PM ET
#5Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
Tue Oct 27 · 8:00 PM EDT		Detroit Pistons55%+130⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET

Top totals reads ranked by gap vs book total

#GameModel sideModel totalGap vs bookBook totalBasis
#1Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Wed Oct 28 · 7:00 PM EDT		under230.2-8.3238.5⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#2Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks
Tue Oct 27 · 8:00 PM EDT		over224.8+6.3218.5⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#3Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Tue Oct 27 · 11:00 PM EDT		under231.1-5.4236.5⏳ Locks at 10:30 PM ET
#4Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Tue Oct 27 · 7:30 PM EDT		under222.1-0.4222.5⏳ Locks at 7:00 PM ET
#5Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
Tue Oct 27 · 8:00 PM EDT		over230.6+0.1230.5⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Forward-test hypothesis only. The value board is not a system, not bets, not edges. Judged after ~100 graded plays with CLV tracked. Bar: 5+ pt model-vs-line gap. Every locked pick is graded from game one β€” see the Record tab.
How to read: "Model says" is who the model thinks wins and by how much. "Gap vs book" is model minus book line. "Lean" is the side the gap points to, with its line. A πŸ“ flag means the gap cleared the 5-point bar.
DateGameModel sideGap vs bookBook lineBasis
Tue Oct 27BKN @ BOSBoston Celtics+7.7-11.5early look β€” not official
Tue Oct 27DET @ NYDetroit Pistons-5.2-3.5early look β€” not official

All games, model vs line

GameModel saysBook lineGap vs bookLeanModel total ptsBook totalTotal gap
BKN @ BOS+19.1 BOS-11.5+7.7BOS -11.5 πŸ“222.1222.5-0.4
DET @ NY-1.7 DET-3.5-5.2DET +3.5 πŸ“224.8218.5+6.3
SAC @ SA+19.9 SA-18.5+1.4SA -18.5230.6230.5+0.1
POR @ LAL+3.4 LAL-2.5+0.9LAL -2.5231.1236.5-5.4
MIA @ ATL+5.9 ATLβ€”β€”β€”236.1β€”β€”
WSH @ CLE+15.9 CLEβ€”β€”β€”235.4β€”β€”
CHA @ DET+7.6 DETβ€”β€”β€”225.4β€”β€”
PHI @ IND-4.8 PHI1.5-3.3PHI -1.5230.2238.5-8.3
ORL @ TOR+5.9 TORβ€”β€”β€”226.6β€”β€”
NY @ CHI-8.9 NYβ€”β€”β€”230.7β€”β€”
HOU @ MIL-10.4 HOUβ€”β€”β€”226.5β€”β€”
GS @ MIN+9.5 MINβ€”β€”β€”229.0β€”β€”
DEN @ NO-6.8 DENβ€”β€”β€”234.9β€”β€”
SA @ UTAH-13.8 SAβ€”β€”β€”235.7β€”β€”
OKC @ DAL-14.5 OKCβ€”β€”β€”226.9β€”β€”
LAL @ LAC+0.4 LACβ€”β€”β€”228.5β€”β€”
How to read: this tab shows where the betting money is going β€” tickets (how many bets) vs money (how many dollars) on each side. It does not predict winners and never feeds the model. A side with far more money than tickets is where the big bets are.
🌊 Money flow day by day
consensus league avg ticket% vs handle% on the favorite Β· gap = sharp divergence
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%10/2110/2210/2310/2410/2510/2610/2710/28Tickets on fav 10/21: 67.6%Tickets on fav 10/22: 78.8%Tickets on fav 10/23: 82.5%Tickets on fav 10/24: 81.9%Tickets on fav 10/25: 89.2%Tickets on fav 10/26: 68.2%Handle on fav 10/21: 59.0%Handle on fav 10/22: 67.0%Handle on fav 10/23: 77.7%Handle on fav 10/24: 72.9%Handle on fav 10/25: 86.0%Handle on fav 10/26: 65.8%Tickets on favHandle on fav

10/21: 11g 3 lopsided 3 sharp-div 6 2-src Β· 10/22: 2g 1 lopsided 1 sharp-div 2 2-src Β· 10/23: 12g 9 lopsided 2 sharp-div 11 2-src Β· 10/24: 8g 5 lopsided 2 sharp-div 8 2-src Β· 10/25: 7g 5 lopsided 2 sharp-div 7 2-src Β· 10/26: 9g 4 lopsided 6 sharp-div 7 2-src Β· 10/27: 4g 3 lopsided 4 sharp-div 0 2-src Β· 10/28: 1g 1 lopsided 1 sharp-div 0 2-src

8 days of splits so far β€” early-season averages are thin; a 2-game day swings wildly.

Lopsided = a side drew 75%+ of the money. Sharp-div = handle% βˆ’ tickets% β‰₯ 15 on a team. Favorite = negative-moneyline side (pick’em games excluded from favorite averages). 2-src = games covered by both sources that day.

πŸ“Š Bet differential day by day
tickets vs money vs over% β€” and the money-minus-tickets gap
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%10/2110/2210/2310/2410/2510/2610/2710/28Tickets (bets%) 10/21: 67.6%Tickets (bets%) 10/22: 78.8%Tickets (bets%) 10/23: 82.5%Tickets (bets%) 10/24: 81.9%Tickets (bets%) 10/25: 89.2%Tickets (bets%) 10/26: 68.2%Money (handle%) 10/21: 59.0%Money (handle%) 10/22: 67.0%Money (handle%) 10/23: 77.7%Money (handle%) 10/24: 72.9%Money (handle%) 10/25: 86.0%Money (handle%) 10/26: 65.8%Over% 10/21: 45.8%Over% 10/22: 84.0%Over% 10/23: 67.2%Over% 10/24: 47.5%Over% 10/25: 58.4%Over% 10/26: 37.1%Tickets (bets%)Money (handle%)Over%
Bet differential (handle% βˆ’ tickets%)
positive = money heavier than tickets
+11.8%βˆ’11.8%10/21: -8.6pp10/21-8.610/22: -11.8pp10/22-11.810/23: -4.8pp10/23-4.810/24: -9.0pp10/24-9.010/25: -3.2pp10/25-3.210/26: -2.4pp10/26-2.4
πŸ“… Day detail
every game that day β€” consensus of the reporting sources

Day

Sources: 2 src = both books reported; Ξ” = max ticket% disagreement between the sources on the moneyline sides. 1 src = only one book reported β€” consensus equals that book, treated as single-book, not consensus.

Move = biggest intraday handle swing on a moneyline side (earliest β†’ latest snapshot of the day, consensus); ⚑ = 10+ point swing. 🧊 = frozen line: handle swung 10+ pts while the cleatz moneyline price moved ≀2 pts of implied probability over the same window. n snaps = snapshots feeding the move. Numbers refresh every ~30 min through the day.

πŸ€ Team splits
that team's consensus tickets vs money, day by day

Team

Splits: consensus: cleatz.com + wiseguyteam.com (DraftKings). Display only β€” not a model input.

How to read: each row is one locked pick, graded after the game. Spread = did the pick cover the book line? Winner = did the picked team win? Totals = over or under the book total? W–L–P = wins, losses, pushes (ties).
Against the spread locked spread pick vs locked book line
28–17–0

62.2% (pushes excluded)

Winner (moneyline) locked winner pick vs actual winner
31–14

68.9%

Totals locked total pick vs locked book total
22–23–0

48.9% (pushes excluded)

Best Bets – Spread top-5 spread picks per slate
20–7–0

74.1% (pushes excluded)

Best Bets – Winner top-5 winner picks per slate
18–8

69.2%

Best Bets – Totals top-5 totals picks per slate
15–11–0

57.7% (pushes excluded)

Record is real and graded from game one. One honest caveat: early-season games were graded on priors-heavy ratings (paper-trade phase until ~15–20 games/team, early Dec) β€” the inputs were thin, the grades are not. 45 graded Β· 2 voided (excluded) Β· 1 locked, awaiting final. Basis is fixed: locked pick vs locked line, append-only, never moved mid-flight. Best Bets records track the same locked rows β€” top-5 reads per market per slate β€” on the identical basis.

Game log

DateGameSpread pickSpreadTotal pickTotalWinner pickWinnerBB
Oct 21ATL @ ORL
132–125		ATL +2.5WUnder 233.5LORLLβ€”
Oct 21MIN @ MIA
131–106		MIA -1.5LUnder 240.5WMIALβ˜…T
Oct 21CHA @ BKN
110–103		CHA -1.5WOver 219.5LCHAWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 21CHI @ TOR
92–135		TOR -10.5WUnder 237.5WTORWβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 21UTAH @ MEM
103–123		MEM -1.5WUnder 240.5WMEMWβ˜…S
Oct 21IND @ NO
123–120		NO +2.5LUnder 238.5LNOLβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 21DAL @ HOU
110–128		HOU -10.5WUnder 230.5LHOUWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 21GS @ LAL
105–127		GS +6.5LUnder 233.5WLALWβ€”
Oct 21PHX @ POR
83–124		PHX +2.5LUnder 231.5WPORWβ˜…T
Oct 21SAC @ LAC
96–121		LAC -5.5WOver 226.5LLACWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 22CLE @ PHI
106–114		CLE +2.5LUnder 236.5WCLELβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 22DEN @ OKC
84–96		OKC -7.5WUnder 236.5WOKCWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 23ATL @ CHA
128–81		CHA +2.5LOver 226.5LCHALβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 23DAL @ IND
121–105		DAL +7.5WUnder 239.5WINDLβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 23MIN @ ORL
115–93		MIN +1.5WUnder 234.5WMINWβ˜…T
Oct 23TOR @ WSH
112–102		TOR -9.5WUnder 236.5WTORWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 23DET @ MIA
128–111		DET -1.5WUnder 234.5LDETWβ€”
Oct 23HOU @ SA
114–110		SA -4.5LOver 224.5LSALβ˜…M
Oct 23NO @ UTAH
119–120		NO +1.5WUnder 238.5LNOLβ˜…S
Oct 23MEM @ GS
111–108		GS -4.5LUnder 236.5WGSLβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 23LAC @ LAL
117–125		LAC +8.5WOver 225.5WLALWβ˜…S
Oct 23POR @ SAC
128–120		SAC +9.5WUnder 231.5LPORWβ˜…M
Oct 24MIA @ CHA
110–115		CHA +4.5WOver 228.5LCHAWβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 24BKN @ CLE
121–125		CLE -11.5LUnder 228.5LCLEWβ˜…M
Oct 24MIL @ PHI
116–127		MIL +13.5WUnder 234.5LPHIWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 24WSH @ CHI
124–120		CHI -1.5LUnder 244.5WCHILβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 24SA @ DAL
122–106		DAL +14.5LOver 229.5LSAWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 24HOU @ ATL
121–114		ATL +1.5LOver 227.5WATLLβ€”
Oct 24NO @ DEN
135–141		NO +11.5WUnder 239.5LDENWβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 24GS @ PHX
122–131		GS +9.5WOver 221.5WPHXWβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 25LAL @ UTAH
132–123		LAL -6.5WUnder 237.5LLALWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 25IND @ BKN
136–109		BKN +6.5LUnder 231.5LINDWβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 25ORL @ NY
111–102		NY -6.5LOver 224.5LNYLβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 25TOR @ MIN
94–117		TOR +3.5LUnder 228.5WMINWβ˜…T
Oct 25LAC @ OKC
101–108		LAC +16.5WUnder 224.5WOKCWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 25DET @ PHI
106–93		DET -1.5WUnder 228.5WDETWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 25MEM @ SAC
123–112		MEM -3.5WUnder 234.5LMEMWβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 26WSH @ CHA
103–110		CHA -2.5WOver 227.5LCHAWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 26MIN @ CLE
125–127		MIN +3.5WUnder 234.5LMINLβ˜…S
Oct 26CHI @ BOS
99–134		BOS -13.5WUnder 233.5WBOSWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 26DAL @ MIA
113–109		MIA -7.5LUnder 240.5WMIALβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 26IND @ MIL
102–110		MIL +3.5WUnder 238.5WMILWβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 26PHX @ OKC
114–125		OKC -8.5WOver 221.5WOKCWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 26ATL @ HOU
110–120		ATL +4.5LUnder 229.5LHOUWβ€”
Oct 26MEM @ UTAH
110–105		MEM -1.5WOver 237.5LMEMWβ€”
Oct 21MIL @ WSH
voided β€” excluded from record		Locked while CHO/BRK/PHO/WAS silently ran 0.0 net ratings (BREF2ESPN mapping bug) β€” corrupted basis. Graded 2-1 (WSH 128-116: spread WSH -4.
Oct 23NY @ BOS
voided — excluded from record		Locked while NYK silently ran 0.0 net rating (BREF2ESPN mapping bug — missing NYK→NY entry) — corrupted basis. Graded 2-1 (BOS 107-103: spre

Running record by week

WeekSpreadSpread runWinnerWinner runTotalsTotals run
Wk of Oct 1922–15–022–15–025–1225–1218–19–018–19–0
Wk of Oct 266–2–028–17–06–231–144–4–022–23–0
The core question

Not "are we smarter than the line." Instead: "what's in the line, and which part can we see through?"

line = efficiency truth + rest/B2B state + public shade + brand tax + key-number rounding + vig.
The model projects only the parts it can measure honestly (efficiency truth, schedule state) and keeps them separable from the parts it can't (shade, brand tax, vig) β€” so every gap vs the line can be asked which component is this?

Pick-lock rule

Picks lock 30 minutes before tipoff. At that moment the model's spread side, total side, and moneyline side are frozen together with the DraftKings spread, total, and moneyline as they stand then.

Efficiency core

Net rating (offensive βˆ’ defensive rating, pace-adjusted) blended: curr_w = min(1, gp/20) * 0.8 ; prior_w = 1 - curr_w. Prior = 2025-26 final ratings. HFA = 2.0 pts (walk-forward tested 2021-22–2024-25, pooled 1.99). Win chance from a bell curve, width 13.5 (untested).

Every factor beyond the efficiency core is walk-forward tested before wiring. Nothing enters the projection on theory alone. Rest/B2B edge is currently 0.0 β€” displayed, logged daily to the rest log for the future backtest, not priced in.

Honest limits

Team net ratings

Offense/defense = points per 100 possessions. Net rating = offense minus defense. Last-season weight = how much of the rating still comes from last season.

AbbrTeamNet ratingOffenseDefensePaceGamesLast-season weight
OKCOklahoma City Thunder+11.10117.5106.499.3388%
DETDetroit Pistons+8.74118.0109.299.4388%
SASan Antonio Spurs+7.31118.4111.1100.1388%
BOSBoston Celtics+7.28120.4113.194.8292%
HOUHouston Rockets+5.93119.1113.296.4388%
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+5.66117.1111.4100.6388%
NYNew York Knicks+4.95117.7112.797.1388%
DENDenver Nuggets+4.55121.6117.098.3292%
ATLAtlanta Hawks+3.96116.8112.8101.8388%
TORToronto Raptors+3.69115.0111.399.2388%
CLECleveland Cavaliers+3.63118.2114.6100.6292%
LALLos Angeles Lakers+3.12119.2116.198.7388%
CHACharlotte Hornets+3.00117.3114.397.2388%
PORPortland Trail Blazers+1.68115.3113.6100.5292%
LACLos Angeles Clippers+1.46116.5115.097.2388%
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+0.38113.8113.4100.2484%
MIAMiami Heat+0.12115.4115.2103.4388%
PHXPhoenix Suns+0.09114.8114.797.0292%
ORLOrlando Magic-0.25113.8114.1100.4388%
GSGolden State Warriors-1.90114.7116.698.6388%
MEMMemphis Grizzlies-3.82113.7117.5101.1388%
NONew Orleans Pelicans-4.34114.8119.1100.5388%
DALDallas Mavericks-5.37111.2116.6101.6388%
CHIChicago Bulls-5.98112.2118.2103.1388%
INDIndiana Pacers-6.41111.7118.1101.3388%
MILMilwaukee Bucks-6.76112.9119.698.6388%
UTAHUtah Jazz-8.32114.1122.4102.2388%
WSHWashington Wizards-10.07111.2121.3101.8388%
BKNBrooklyn Nets-10.52108.5119.097.9388%
SACSacramento Kings-10.63111.0121.699.4388%
Quarter wins + scoring only. No quarter spread or total lines exist in free sources, so there are no against-the-spread or over/under columns here β€” a quarter win is a quarter moneyline win. Overtime periods excluded. Display only β€” not a model input.

51 finished games since Oct 20. 22 tied quarters (counted as neither win nor loss). Click a header to sort.

Quarter records W-L per quarter, season to date

TeamGPQ1Q2Q3Q4All QQ win%
Minnesota Timberwolves44-03-13-11-2-111-40.7%
Portland Trail Blazers21-12-02-00-1-15-20.7%
Toronto Raptors32-12-11-23-08-40.7%
Boston Celtics32-12-0-12-11-27-40.6%
Los Angeles Lakers31-23-02-0-11-27-40.6%
Houston Rockets43-12-1-12-1-11-2-18-50.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder43-12-22-1-12-29-60.6%
Atlanta Hawks42-22-1-11-2-13-18-60.6%
Washington Wizards43-11-33-12-29-70.6%
Memphis Grizzlies41-33-12-23-19-70.6%
Indiana Pacers41-32-23-13-19-70.6%
Detroit Pistons32-10-2-12-12-16-50.5%
New York Knicks33-01-20-2-12-16-50.5%
San Antonio Spurs31-22-11-22-0-16-50.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers32-12-12-10-2-16-50.5%
Los Angeles Clippers32-11-21-22-16-60.5%
Philadelphia 76ers41-30-3-14-02-27-80.5%
Charlotte Hornets41-2-13-12-21-37-80.5%
Utah Jazz43-12-20-3-12-27-80.5%
Orlando Magic31-21-21-1-12-15-60.5%
Milwaukee Bucks42-22-22-21-37-90.4%
Dallas Mavericks41-32-22-22-27-90.4%
New Orleans Pelicans31-22-12-10-35-70.4%
Golden State Warriors32-10-31-22-15-70.4%
Sacramento Kings32-11-21-21-25-70.4%
Denver Nuggets21-11-10-21-13-50.4%
Miami Heat41-2-11-31-32-25-100.3%
Phoenix Suns30-31-21-1-11-1-13-70.3%
Chicago Bulls40-42-1-10-42-24-110.3%
Brooklyn Nets31-20-31-21-23-90.2%

Quarter scoring points for / against per quarter, per game

TeamGPQ1 PFQ1 PAQ2 PFQ2 PAQ3 PFQ3 PAQ4 PFQ4 PATot PFTot PA
Atlanta Hawks430.528.833.028.027.029.530.525.5121.0111.8
Boston Celtics329.025.029.024.334.027.326.031.0118.0107.7
Brooklyn Nets326.328.726.333.727.732.330.729.0111.0123.7
Charlotte Hornets424.227.030.027.526.825.823.030.8104.0111.0
Chicago Bulls422.034.033.229.527.238.828.227.2110.8129.5
Cleveland Cavaliers331.326.331.026.728.329.724.033.3114.7116.0
Dallas Mavericks431.029.526.028.829.529.826.028.0112.5116.0
Denver Nuggets225.531.027.027.524.030.528.522.0105.0111.0
Detroit Pistons334.025.321.326.332.727.330.326.7118.3105.7
Golden State Warriors330.729.723.331.329.335.028.327.0111.7123.0
Houston Rockets431.528.531.824.228.828.028.830.2120.8111.0
Indiana Pacers429.533.026.829.231.026.229.226.5116.5115.0
Los Angeles Clippers330.726.326.327.329.329.726.726.3113.0109.7
Los Angeles Lakers330.037.038.025.334.723.725.329.0128.0115.0
Memphis Grizzlies429.228.533.026.029.529.225.023.2116.8107.0
Miami Heat429.032.226.531.024.532.029.026.5109.0121.8
Milwaukee Bucks427.826.229.233.035.034.224.828.8116.8122.2
Minnesota Timberwolves430.824.229.526.030.022.028.829.2119.0101.5
New Orleans Pelicans332.331.031.327.333.028.725.036.0121.7123.0
New York Knicks326.723.326.327.321.728.327.029.0101.7108.0
Oklahoma City Thunder428.525.526.222.230.028.526.524.5111.2100.8
Orlando Magic324.727.327.033.025.326.332.729.7109.7116.3
Philadelphia 76ers424.229.827.531.031.022.227.224.0110.0107.0
Phoenix Suns320.333.729.330.734.735.025.024.3109.3123.7
Portland Trail Blazers235.022.530.529.039.526.521.023.5126.0101.5
Sacramento Kings330.031.029.031.324.335.026.026.7109.3124.0
San Antonio Spurs329.032.328.029.727.327.027.723.0112.0112.0
Toronto Raptors332.725.326.025.023.329.031.724.3113.7103.7
Utah Jazz432.529.026.533.026.233.027.526.0112.8121.0
Washington Wizards423.825.827.232.232.026.031.230.5114.2114.5