πŸ€ NBA Model 2026-27 Β· paper trade Β· generated 2026-10-28 23:20 ET

How to read a card: the first sentence is the conclusion β€” who the model picks, what the book line says, and where they disagree. The numbers below are the inputs. Paper-trade phase: ratings run on 2025-26 priors + early-season noise. Rest/B2B shown and logged, not priced. Value flags are hypotheses, never bets. Quarter records are season history, not a prediction.
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:00 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says Atlanta Hawks by 5.7. The book line says Atlanta Hawks by 2.5. So the model leans Atlanta Hawks -2.5. Total: model 235.7, book 241.5 β€” leans under.
Quarter records so far: Q1 MIA 2-2-1 vs ATL 2-3 Β· Q2 MIA 2-3 vs ATL 2-2-1 Β· Q3 MIA 1-4 vs ATL 2-2-1 Β· Q4 MIA 2-2-1 vs ATL 3-1-1
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: ATL -2.5
Total points: Under 241.5
Winner: ATL (-135) Β· 66%
🏁 Final Β· MIA 129 – ATL 117 Β· locked pick was ATL (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
Atlanta Hawks by 5.7 Β· win chance 66%
Model total points
235.7 (gap -7.8 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -2.5 Β· total 243.5
moneyline +120 / -142
Model margin built from
efficiency +3.67 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+3.2 pts vs book line
Rest days
MIA 1d rest Β· ATL 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
MIA -0.1 Β· ATL +3.5
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: MIA 1 players Β· ATL 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +6.3 vs official +5.7 β€” MIA βˆ’0.2 (Simone Fontecchio 0.2) Β· ATL +0.4 (Mouhamed Gueye -0.4) Β· unknown value: Henri Veesaar
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Atlanta Hawks +5.7 (66% to win outright). DK has Atlanta Hawks -2.5. Model-vs-line gap: +3.2 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+3.67) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: MIA 129 – ATL 117. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
Miami Heat β€” strengths & weaknesses
Miami Heat (MIA) ranks #17 at -0.1 net β€” 114.9 offense, 115.1 defense, 103.4 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (103.4 pace)
Atlanta Hawks β€” strengths & weaknesses
Atlanta Hawks (ATL) ranks #11 at +3.5 net β€” 116.4 offense, 113.0 defense, 101.8 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (113.0 allowed/100)
βœ“ plays fast (101.8 pace)
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test β€” neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates β€” this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Simone Fontecchio (Out for Miami Heat β€” Illness).
Verdict: a mild lean at best β€” under the 5pt bar, not a play.
Rest
Miami Heat: 1d rest
Atlanta Hawks: 1d rest
Injuries
Miami Heat: Simone Fontecchio (Out β€” Illness (return 2026-10-30)).
Atlanta Hawks: Mouhamed Gueye (Out β€” Foot Fracture (return 2026-11-20)); Henri Veesaar (Out β€” Knee (return 2027-07-01)).
Line movement
Spread -3.5 β†’ -2.5
Model total 235.7 vs listed 243.5 (edge -7.8) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:00 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says Cleveland Cavaliers by 15.5. The book line says Cleveland Cavaliers by 9.5. So the model leans Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5. Total: model 234.7, book 240.5 β€” leans under. Paper trade only β€” a test flag, not a bet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 WSH 4-1 vs CLE 2-2 Β· Q2 WSH 2-3 vs CLE 2-2 Β· Q3 WSH 3-2 vs CLE 3-1 Β· Q4 WSH 2-3 vs CLE 1-2-1
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: CLE -9.5
Total points: Under 240.5
Winner: CLE (-395) Β· 87%
🏁 Final Β· WSH 111 – CLE 121 Β· locked pick was CLE (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
Cleveland Cavaliers by 15.5 Β· win chance 87%
Model total points
234.7 (gap -5.8 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -9.5 Β· total 240.5
moneyline +310 / -395
Model margin built from
efficiency +13.51 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+6.0 pts vs book line
Rest days
WSH 1d rest Β· CLE 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
WSH -9.9 Β· CLE +3.5
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: WSH 4 players Β· CLE 0 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +11.4 vs official +15.5 β€” WSH +4.1 (Tre Johnson -2.5, Justin Champagnie -0.2, Jamir Watkins -1.4) Β· CLE βˆ’0.0 (β€”)
πŸ“ PAPER TRADE flag: the model leans Cleveland Cavaliers by 6.0 pts vs the book line (5+ point bar). A test flag only β€” not a bet, not an edge.
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Cleveland Cavaliers +15.5 (87% to win outright). DK has Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5. Model-vs-line gap: +6.0 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+13.51) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: WSH 111 – CLE 121. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
Washington Wizards β€” strengths & weaknesses
Washington Wizards (WSH) ranks #28 at -9.9 net β€” 111.2 offense, 121.1 defense, 101.5 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (101.5 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (111.2 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (121.1 allowed/100)
Cleveland Cavaliers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE) ranks #10 at +3.5 net β€” 118.1 offense, 114.6 defense, 100.5 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (118.1 pts/100)
The exploitation map
Cleveland Cavaliers's top-third offense (118.1 pts/100) against Washington Wizards's bottom-third defense (121.1 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Tre Johnson (Out for Washington Wizards β€” Achilles Soreness).
Verdict: the 6.0pt disagreement on Cleveland Cavaliers is the one to watch as the forward test β€” hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
Washington Wizards: 1d rest
Cleveland Cavaliers: 1d rest
Injuries
Washington Wizards: Tre Johnson (Out β€” Achilles Soreness (return 2026-10-30)); Justin Champagnie (Out β€” Foot Not Specified (return 2027-02-25)); Tristan Vukcevic (Out β€” Hip Pinched Nerve (return 2026-11-02)); Jamir Watkins (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2027-04-02)).
Line movement
Spread -10.5 β†’ -9.5
Model total 234.7 vs listed 240.5 (edge -5.8) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:00 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says Detroit Pistons by 6.7. The book line says Detroit Pistons by 7.5. So the model leans Charlotte Hornets +7.5. Total: model 224.8, book 212.5 β€” leans over.
Quarter records so far: Q1 CHA 2-2-1 vs DET 3-2 Β· Q2 CHA 4-1 vs DET 0-4-1 Β· Q3 CHA 2-3 vs DET 3-2 Β· Q4 CHA 1-4 vs DET 4-1
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: CHA +7.5
Total points: Over 212.5
Winner: DET (-290) Β· 69%
🏁 Final Β· CHA 89 – DET 97 Β· locked pick was CHA (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
Detroit Pistons by 6.7 Β· win chance 69%
Model total points
224.8 (gap +12.3 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -7.5 Β· total 212.5
moneyline +235 / -290
Model margin built from
efficiency +4.69 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-0.8 pts vs book line
Rest days
CHA 1d rest Β· DET 0d rest πŸ” B2B
Efficiency (net rating)
CHA +3.1 Β· DET +7.8
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: CHA 4 players Β· DET 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +4.5 vs official +6.7 β€” CHA βˆ’1.8 (Coby White -0.7, Kon Knueppel 1.8, Grant Williams 0.7) Β· DET βˆ’4.0 (Isaiah Joe 1.1, Jalen Duren 2.9) Β· unknown value: Kylan Boswell
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Detroit Pistons +6.7 (69% to win outright). DK has Detroit Pistons -7.5. Model-vs-line gap: -0.8 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+4.69) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: CHA 89 – DET 97. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
Charlotte Hornets β€” strengths & weaknesses
Charlotte Hornets (CHA) ranks #12 at +3.1 net β€” 117.3 offense, 114.2 defense, 97.0 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (117.3 pts/100)
Detroit Pistons β€” strengths & weaknesses
Detroit Pistons (DET) ranks #4 at +7.8 net β€” 117.4 offense, 109.5 defense, 99.2 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (117.4 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (109.5 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Charlotte Hornets's elite offense runs into Detroit Pistons's lockdown defense β€” strength on strength.
Rest gap: Detroit Pistons on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Strength on strength decides this one β€” the elite-offense-vs-lockdown-defense battle is the game.
The biggest swing factor is Coby White (Out for Charlotte Hornets β€” Calf Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Charlotte Hornets: 1d rest
Detroit Pistons: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Charlotte Hornets: Coby White (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-11-02)); Kon Knueppel (Out β€” Hamstring (return 2026-11-02)); Grant Williams (Out β€” Hamstring (return 2026-11-02)); Kylan Boswell (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-11-02)).
Detroit Pistons: Isaiah Joe (Out β€” Hip Bruise (return 2026-10-30)); Jalen Duren (Out β€” Hamstring Strain (return 2026-11-09)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -7.5
Model total 224.8 vs listed 212.5 (edge +12.3) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:00 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says Philadelphia 76ers by 4.8. The book line says Philadelphia 76ers by 7.5. So the model leans Indiana Pacers +7.5. Total: model 229.8, book 234.5 β€” leans under.
Quarter records so far: Q1 PHI 1-3-1 vs IND 1-3-1 Β· Q2 PHI 1-3-1 vs IND 2-3 Β· Q3 PHI 4-1 vs IND 4-1 Β· Q4 PHI 3-2 vs IND 3-2
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: IND +7.5
Total points: Under 234.5
Winner: PHI (-278) Β· 36%
🏁 Final Β· PHI 114 – IND 109 Β· locked pick was IND (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
Philadelphia 76ers by 4.8 Β· win chance 64%
Model total points
229.8 (gap -4.7 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread 7.5 Β· total 234.5
moneyline -278 / +225
Model margin built from
efficiency -6.84 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+2.7 pts vs book line
Rest days
PHI 2d rest Β· IND 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
PHI +0.4 Β· IND -6.4
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: PHI 4 players Β· IND 5 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -4.5 vs official -4.8 β€” PHI +1.7 (Jabari Walker -0.7, Dominick Barlow -0.6, Ariel Hukporti -0.4) Β· IND +2.0 (T.J. McConnell 0.9, Ben Sheppard -1.3, Ivica Zubac -0.2, Johnny Furphy -1.4) Β· unknown value: Tacko Fall, Tyrese Haliburton
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Indiana Pacers -4.8 (36% to win outright). DK has Philadelphia 76ers -7.5. Model-vs-line gap: +2.7 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-6.84) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: PHI 114 – IND 109. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
Philadelphia 76ers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Philadelphia 76ers (PHI) ranks #16 at +0.4 net β€” 113.8 offense, 113.4 defense, 100.2 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (113.4 allowed/100)
βœ— bottom-third offense (113.8 pts/100)
Indiana Pacers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Indiana Pacers (IND) ranks #25 at -6.4 net β€” 111.3 offense, 117.7 defense, 101.3 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (101.3 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (111.3 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (117.7 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
The worst faucet meets a leaky pipe: Philadelphia 76ers (113.8 pts/100) may not punish Indiana Pacers's 117.7 allowed.
Torque's read
The key question is whether the weak offense can punish the leaky defense β€” usually it can't, and that decides the game.
The biggest swing factor is Tacko Fall (Out for Philadelphia 76ers β€” Quadriceps Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Philadelphia 76ers: 2d rest
Indiana Pacers: 1d rest
Injuries
Philadelphia 76ers: Tacko Fall (Out β€” Quadriceps Strain (return 2026-11-04)); Jabari Walker (Out β€” Knee Soreness (return 2026-10-30)); Dominick Barlow (Out β€” Back Fracture (return 2026-11-04)); Ariel Hukporti (Out β€” Achilles Surgery (return 2027-10-01)).
Indiana Pacers: T.J. McConnell (Out β€” Hamstring Strain (return 2026-11-02)); Ben Sheppard (Out β€” Knee (return 2027-01-02)); Tyrese Haliburton (Out β€” Hamstring Strain (return 2026-11-13)); Ivica Zubac (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-30)).
Line movement
Spread +1.5 β†’ +7.5
Model total 229.8 vs listed 234.5 (edge -4.7) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
Wed Oct 28 Β· 7:30 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says Toronto Raptors by 5.9. The book line says Toronto Raptors by 4.5. So the model leans Toronto Raptors -4.5. Total: model 226.6, book 224.5 β€” leans over. The injury shadow disagrees β€” it leans Orlando Magic.
Quarter records so far: Q1 ORL 1-3 vs TOR 3-1 Β· Q2 ORL 1-3 vs TOR 3-1 Β· Q3 ORL 1-2-1 vs TOR 2-2 Β· Q4 ORL 2-2 vs TOR 4-0
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: TOR -4.5
Total points: Over 224.5
Winner: TOR (-192) Β· 67%
🏁 Final Β· ORL 99 – TOR 129 Β· locked pick was TOR (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
Toronto Raptors by 5.9 Β· win chance 67%
Model total points
226.6 (gap +2.1 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -5.5 Β· total 224.5
moneyline +160 / -192
Model margin built from
efficiency +3.93 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+0.4 pts vs book line
Rest days
ORL 2d rest Β· TOR 2d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
ORL -0.2 Β· TOR +3.7
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: ORL 5 players Β· TOR 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +2.3 vs official +5.9 β€” ORL βˆ’1.7 (Jonathan Isaac -0.3, Jalen Suggs 1.4, Paolo Banchero 1.0, Noah Penda -0.4) Β· TOR βˆ’5.3 (Kawhi Leonard 5.3) Β· unknown value: Izaiyah Nelson, Nate Bittle
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Toronto Raptors +5.9 (67% to win outright). DK has Toronto Raptors -5.5. Model-vs-line gap: +0.4 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+3.93) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: ORL 99 – TOR 129. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
Orlando Magic β€” strengths & weaknesses
Orlando Magic (ORL) ranks #18 at -0.2 net β€” 113.8 offense, 114.1 defense, 100.4 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test β€” a league-average profile.
Toronto Raptors β€” strengths & weaknesses
Toronto Raptors (TOR) ranks #8 at +3.7 net β€” 115.0 offense, 111.3 defense, 99.2 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (111.3 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test β€” neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates β€” this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Jonathan Isaac (Out for Orlando Magic β€” Knee Not Specified).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Orlando Magic: 2d rest
Toronto Raptors: 2d rest
Injuries
Orlando Magic: Jonathan Isaac (Out β€” Knee Not Specified (return 2026-10-30)); Jalen Suggs (Out β€” Knee (return 2026-11-10)); Paolo Banchero (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-11-22)); Noah Penda (Out β€” Hamstring Strain (return 2026-11-18)).
Toronto Raptors: Nate Bittle (Out β€” Foot Fracture (return 2026-11-02)); Kawhi Leonard (Out β€” Knee Inflammation (return 2026-11-23)).
Line movement
Spread -4.5 β†’ -5.5
Model total 226.6 vs listed 224.5 (edge +2.1) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls
Wed Oct 28 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says New York Knicks by 10.4. The book line says New York Knicks by 6.5. So the model leans New York Knicks -6.5. Total: model 230.3, book 232.5 β€” leans under.
Quarter records so far: Q1 NY 4-1 vs CHI 0-5 Β· Q2 NY 2-3 vs CHI 3-1-1 Β· Q3 NY 1-2-2 vs CHI 0-4-1 Β· Q4 NY 3-2 vs CHI 2-3
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: NY -6.5
Total points: Under 232.5
Winner: NY (-278) Β· 22%
🏁 Final Β· NY 133 – CHI 127 Β· locked pick was NY (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
New York Knicks by 10.4 Β· win chance 78%
Model total points
230.3 (gap -3.2 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread 7.5 Β· total 233.5
moneyline -278 / +225
Model margin built from
efficiency -12.37 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-2.9 pts vs book line
Rest days
NY 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· CHI 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
NY +5.3 Β· CHI -7.1
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: NY 1 players Β· CHI 3 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -9.4 vs official -10.4 β€” NY +0.4 (Jose Alvarado -0.4) Β· CHI +1.4 (Patrick Williams -1.9, Nic Claxton 0.5) Β· unknown value: Tobe Awaka
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Chicago Bulls -10.4 (22% to win outright). DK has New York Knicks -7.5. Model-vs-line gap: -2.9 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-12.37) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: NY 133 – CHI 127. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
New York Knicks β€” strengths & weaknesses
New York Knicks (NY) ranks #7 at +5.3 net β€” 117.6 offense, 112.3 defense, 97.0 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (117.6 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (112.3 allowed/100)
Chicago Bulls β€” strengths & weaknesses
Chicago Bulls (CHI) ranks #26 at -7.1 net β€” 111.4 offense, 118.5 defense, 103.3 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (103.3 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (111.4 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (118.5 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
New York Knicks's top-third offense (117.6 pts/100) against Chicago Bulls's bottom-third defense (118.5 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Pace clash: Chicago Bulls wants it fast (103.3) while New York Knicks slows it down (97.0).
Rest gap: New York Knicks on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Jose Alvarado (Out for New York Knicks β€” Ankle Sprain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
New York Knicks: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Chicago Bulls: 1d rest
Injuries
New York Knicks: Jose Alvarado (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-30)).
Chicago Bulls: Tobe Awaka (Out β€” Ankle (return 2026-10-30)); Patrick Williams (Out β€” Groin Soreness (return 2026-10-30)); Nic Claxton (Out β€” Hamstring (return 2026-11-04)).
Line movement
Spread steady at +7.5
Model total 230.3 vs listed 233.5 (edge -3.2) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says Houston Rockets by 10.0. The book line says Houston Rockets by 8.5. So the model leans Houston Rockets -8.5. Total: model 226.4, book 226.5 β€” leans under.
Quarter records so far: Q1 HOU 4-1 vs MIL 2-3 Β· Q2 HOU 3-1-1 vs MIL 2-3 Β· Q3 HOU 3-1-1 vs MIL 2-3 Β· Q4 HOU 2-2-1 vs MIL 1-4
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: HOU -8.5
Total points: Under 226.5
Winner: HOU (-340) Β· 23%
🏁 Final Β· HOU 132 – MIL 100 Β· locked pick was HOU (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
Houston Rockets by 10.0 Β· win chance 77%
Model total points
226.4 (gap -0.1 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread 8.5 Β· total 226.5
moneyline -340 / +270
Model margin built from
efficiency -12.04 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-1.5 pts vs book line
Rest days
HOU 1d rest Β· MIL 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
HOU +6.1 Β· MIL -6.2
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: HOU 3 players Β· MIL 0 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -11.6 vs official -10.0 β€” HOU +1.5 (Marcus Smart -1.3, Steven Adams -0.2) Β· MIL βˆ’0.0 (β€”) Β· unknown value: Alperen Sengun
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Milwaukee Bucks -10.0 (23% to win outright). DK has Houston Rockets -8.5. Model-vs-line gap: -1.5 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-12.04) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: HOU 132 – MIL 100. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
Houston Rockets β€” strengths & weaknesses
Houston Rockets (HOU) ranks #5 at +6.1 net β€” 119.0 offense, 112.9 defense, 96.7 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (119.0 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (112.9 allowed/100)
Milwaukee Bucks β€” strengths & weaknesses
Milwaukee Bucks (MIL) ranks #24 at -6.2 net β€” 112.8 offense, 119.0 defense, 98.7 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ— bottom-third offense (112.8 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (119.0 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Houston Rockets's top-third offense (119.0 pts/100) against Milwaukee Bucks's bottom-third defense (119.0 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Marcus Smart (Out for Houston Rockets β€” Forearm Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Houston Rockets: 1d rest
Milwaukee Bucks: 1d rest
Injuries
Houston Rockets: Marcus Smart (Out β€” Forearm Strain (return 2026-10-30)); Alperen Sengun (Out β€” Back Soreness (return 2026-10-30)); Steven Adams (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-11-02)).
Line movement
Spread steady at +8.5
Model total 226.4 vs listed 226.5 (edge -0.1) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Wed Oct 28 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says Minnesota Timberwolves by 8.4. The book line says Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.5. So the model leans Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5. Total: model 229.4, book 227.5 β€” leans over.
Quarter records so far: Q1 GS 3-2 vs MIN 4-1 Β· Q2 GS 2-3 vs MIN 3-2 Β· Q3 GS 2-3 vs MIN 4-1 Β· Q4 GS 3-2 vs MIN 2-2-1
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: MIN -4.5
Total points: Over 227.5
Winner: MIN (-170) Β· 73%
🏁 Final Β· GS 119 – MIN 114 Β· locked pick was MIN (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
Minnesota Timberwolves by 8.4 Β· win chance 73%
Model total points
229.4 (gap +1.9 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -3.5 Β· total 227.5
moneyline +130 / -155
Model margin built from
efficiency +6.44 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+4.9 pts vs book line
Rest days
GS 1d rest Β· MIN 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
GS -1.1 Β· MIN +5.4
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: GS 4 players Β· MIN 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +7.9 vs official +8.4 β€” GS βˆ’3.2 (Gui Santos -0.3, Jimmy Butler III 3.6) Β· MIN βˆ’3.8 (Anthony Edwards 3.3, Donte DiVincenzo 0.5) Β· unknown value: Kristaps Porzingis
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Minnesota Timberwolves +8.4 (73% to win outright). DK has Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5. Model-vs-line gap: +4.9 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+6.44) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: GS 119 – MIN 114. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
Golden State Warriors β€” strengths & weaknesses
Golden State Warriors (GS) ranks #20 at -1.1 net β€” 115.7 offense, 116.8 defense, 98.5 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test β€” a league-average profile.
Minnesota Timberwolves β€” strengths & weaknesses
Minnesota Timberwolves (MIN) ranks #6 at +5.4 net β€” 117.0 offense, 111.6 defense, 100.6 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (111.6 allowed/100)
βœ“ plays fast (100.6 pace)
The exploitation map
Pace clash: Minnesota Timberwolves wants it fast (100.6) while Golden State Warriors slows it down (98.5).
Torque's read
This one is won or lost in the pace battle β€” whoever imposes their tempo has the edge.
The biggest swing factor is Gui Santos (Out for Golden State Warriors β€” Knee Tendinitis).
Verdict: a mild lean at best β€” under the 5pt bar, not a play.
Rest
Golden State Warriors: 1d rest
Minnesota Timberwolves: 1d rest
Injuries
Golden State Warriors: Gui Santos (Out β€” Knee Tendinitis (return 2026-10-30)); Kristaps Porzingis (Out β€” Illness (return 2026-12-01)); Moses Moody (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-12-01)); Jimmy Butler III (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2027-01-02)).
Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-12-21)); Donte DiVincenzo (Out β€” Achilles Surgery (return 2027-04-02)).
Line movement
Spread -6.5 β†’ -3.5
Model total 229.4 vs listed 227.5 (edge +1.9) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Wed Oct 28 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· Final
Model says Denver Nuggets by 5.8. The book line says Denver Nuggets by 4.5. So the model leans Denver Nuggets -4.5. Total: model 235.2, book 240.5 β€” leans under.
Quarter records so far: Q1 DEN 3-1 vs NO 1-3 Β· Q2 DEN 1-3 vs NO 3-1 Β· Q3 DEN 0-4 vs NO 3-1 Β· Q4 DEN 2-2 vs NO 0-4
🎯 Model pick Β· 🏁 final β€” locked pick was
Against the spread: DEN -4.5
Total points: Under 240.5
Winner: DEN (-180) Β· 33%
🏁 Final Β· DEN 104 – NO 91 Β· locked pick was DEN (grading starts ~Dec 2026)
Model says
Denver Nuggets by 5.8 Β· win chance 67%
Model total points
235.2 (gap -6.3 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread 4.5 Β· total 241.5
moneyline -180 / +150
Model margin built from
efficiency -7.82 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-1.3 pts vs book line
Rest days
DEN 1d rest Β· NO 3d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
DEN +3.5 Β· NO -4.3
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: DEN 4 players Β· NO 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -6.9 vs official -5.8 β€” DEN +2.2 (Cameron Johnson -0.4, Spencer Jones -1.1, Julian Strawther -0.7) Β· NO +1.1 (Jordan Poole -0.4, Yves Missi -0.7) Β· unknown value: Alpha Diallo
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes New Orleans Pelicans -5.8 (33% to win outright). DK has Denver Nuggets -4.5. Model-vs-line gap: -1.3 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-7.82) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
🏁 Final: DEN 104 – NO 91. Graded in the Record tab β€” grading runs from game one.
Denver Nuggets β€” strengths & weaknesses
Denver Nuggets (DEN) ranks #9 at +3.5 net β€” 121.4 offense, 117.9 defense, 98.2 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (121.4 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (117.9 allowed/100)
New Orleans Pelicans β€” strengths & weaknesses
New Orleans Pelicans (NO) ranks #22 at -4.3 net β€” 114.8 offense, 119.1 defense, 100.5 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (100.5 pace)
βœ— bottom-third defense (119.1 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Denver Nuggets's top-third offense (121.4 pts/100) against New Orleans Pelicans's bottom-third defense (119.1 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Pace clash: New Orleans Pelicans wants it fast (100.5) while Denver Nuggets slows it down (98.2).
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Cameron Johnson (Out for Denver Nuggets β€” Ankle Sprain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Denver Nuggets: 1d rest
New Orleans Pelicans: 3d rest
Injuries
Denver Nuggets: Cameron Johnson (Out β€” Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-30)); Spencer Jones (Out β€” Hamstring Not Specified (return 2026-11-02)); Alpha Diallo (Out β€” Personal (return 2026-10-30)); Julian Strawther (Out β€” Knee Sprain (return 2026-11-29)).
New Orleans Pelicans: Jordan Poole (Day-To-Day β€” Ankle (return 2026-10-29)); Yves Missi (Out β€” Knee Bruise (return 2026-11-02)).
Line movement
Spread steady at +4.5
Model total 235.2 vs listed 241.5 (edge -6.3) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:00 PM EDT Β· 1:00 - 3rd
Model says San Antonio Spurs by 14.4. The book line says San Antonio Spurs by 14.5. So the model leans Utah Jazz +14.5. Total: model 235.2, book 232.5 β€” leans over. The injury shadow disagrees β€” it leans San Antonio Spurs.
Quarter records so far: Q1 SA 2-2 vs UTAH 3-1 Β· Q2 SA 3-1 vs UTAH 2-2 Β· Q3 SA 2-2 vs UTAH 0-3-1 Β· Q4 SA 2-0-2 vs UTAH 2-2
🎯 Model pick Β· πŸ”’ locked pick
Against the spread: UTAH +14.5
Total points: Over 232.5
Winner: SA (-800) Β· 14%
πŸ”’ Locked 8:35 PM ET
Locked pick: spread UTAH vs DK 14.5 Β· total over (model 235.2 vs 232.5) Β· ML SA (14%)
Model says
San Antonio Spurs by 14.4 Β· win chance 86%
Model total points
235.2 (gap +2.7 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread 13.5 Β· total 232.5
moneyline -750 / +525
Model margin built from
efficiency -16.42 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-0.9 pts vs book line
Rest days
SA 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· UTAH 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
SA +8.0 Β· UTAH -8.2
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: SA 2 players Β· UTAH 4 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -14.7 vs official -14.4 β€” SA βˆ’0.8 (Tobias Harris 0.8) Β· UTAH βˆ’1.1 (Lauri Markkanen 1.9, Jaren Jackson Jr. -0.4, Trey Alexander -0.4) Β· unknown value: Jayden Quaintance, Jusuf Nurkic
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Utah Jazz -14.4 (14% to win outright). DK has San Antonio Spurs -13.5. Model-vs-line gap: -0.9 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-16.42) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
πŸ”’ Locked 8:35 PM ET: spread UTAH vs DK 14.5 Β· total over Β· ML SA (14%).
San Antonio Spurs β€” strengths & weaknesses
San Antonio Spurs (SA) ranks #3 at +8.0 net β€” 118.9 offense, 110.8 defense, 100.1 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (118.9 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (110.8 allowed/100)
Utah Jazz β€” strengths & weaknesses
Utah Jazz (UTAH) ranks #27 at -8.2 net β€” 113.7 offense, 121.9 defense, 102.1 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (102.1 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (113.7 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (121.9 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
San Antonio Spurs's top-third offense (118.9 pts/100) against Utah Jazz's bottom-third defense (121.9 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Rest gap: San Antonio Spurs on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense β€” that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Tobias Harris (Out for San Antonio Spurs β€” Calf Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
San Antonio Spurs: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Utah Jazz: 1d rest
Injuries
San Antonio Spurs: Tobias Harris (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-10-31)); Jayden Quaintance (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-12-03)).
Utah Jazz: Lauri Markkanen (Out β€” Wrist Not Specified (return 2026-10-31)); Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out β€” Knee Not Specified (return 2026-12-14)); Trey Alexander (Out β€” Knee Bruise (return 2026-11-06)); Jusuf Nurkic (Out β€” Foot Strain (return 2026-11-04)).
Line movement
Spread +12.5 β†’ +13.5
Model total 235.2 vs listed 232.5 (edge +2.7) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:30 PM EDT Β· Halftime
Model says Oklahoma City Thunder by 14.2. The book line says Oklahoma City Thunder by 5.5. So the model leans Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5. Total: model 227.0, book 228.5 β€” leans under. Paper trade only β€” a test flag, not a bet.
Quarter records so far: Q1 OKC 3-1 vs DAL 1-3 Β· Q2 OKC 2-2 vs DAL 2-2 Β· Q3 OKC 2-1-1 vs DAL 2-2 Β· Q4 OKC 2-2 vs DAL 2-2
🎯 Model pick Β· πŸ”’ locked pick
Against the spread: OKC -5.5
Total points: Under 228.5
Winner: OKC (-192) Β· 15%
πŸ”’ Locked 9:04 PM ET
Locked pick: spread OKC vs DK 5.5 Β· total under (model 227.0 vs 228.5) Β· ML OKC (15%)
Model says
Oklahoma City Thunder by 14.2 Β· win chance 85%
Model total points
227.0 (gap -0.5 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread 4.5 Β· total 227.5
moneyline -192 / +160
Model margin built from
efficiency -16.16 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-9.7 pts vs book line
Rest days
OKC 1d rest Β· DAL 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
OKC +11.1 Β· DAL -5.0
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: OKC 7 players Β· DAL 5 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -9.8 vs official -14.2 β€” OKC βˆ’5.2 (Jalen Williams 1.2, Alex Caruso 0.7, Chet Holmgren 2.5, Cason Wallace 0.7) Β· DAL βˆ’0.8 (Naji Marshall -0.4, Santi Aldama 1.0, Dereck Lively II 0.2) Β· unknown value: Nikola Topic, Otega Oweh, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic, Thomas Sorber
πŸ“ PAPER TRADE flag: the model leans Oklahoma City Thunder by 9.7 pts vs the book line (5+ point bar). A test flag only β€” not a bet, not an edge.
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Dallas Mavericks -14.2 (15% to win outright). DK has Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5. Model-vs-line gap: -9.7 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-16.16) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
πŸ”’ Locked 9:04 PM ET: spread OKC vs DK 5.5 Β· total under Β· ML OKC (15%).
Oklahoma City Thunder β€” strengths & weaknesses
Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) ranks #1 at +11.1 net β€” 117.8 offense, 106.7 defense, 99.3 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (117.8 pts/100)
βœ“ top-third defense (106.7 allowed/100)
Dallas Mavericks β€” strengths & weaknesses
Dallas Mavericks (DAL) ranks #23 at -5.0 net β€” 111.2 offense, 116.2 defense, 101.7 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (101.7 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (111.2 pts/100)
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test β€” neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates β€” this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Jalen Williams (Out for Oklahoma City Thunder β€” Leg Fracture).
Verdict: the 8.7pt disagreement on Oklahoma City Thunder is the one to watch as the forward test β€” hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
Oklahoma City Thunder: 1d rest
Dallas Mavericks: 1d rest
Injuries
Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams (Out β€” Leg Fracture (return 2027-03-02)); Alex Caruso (Out β€” Ankle (return 2026-11-04)); Thomas Sorber (Out β€” Knee (return 2026-11-04)); Chet Holmgren (Out β€” Knee (return 2026-10-31)).
Dallas Mavericks: Naji Marshall (Out β€” Illness (return 2026-10-30)); Tarik Biberovic (Out β€” Heel Inflammation (return 2026-10-30)); Santi Aldama (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2026-10-30)); Sergio de Larrea (Out β€” Knee Strain (return 2026-10-30)).
Line movement
Spread +5.5 β†’ +4.5
Model total 227.0 vs listed 227.5 (edge -0.5) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Wed Oct 28 Β· 10:30 PM EDT Β· 6:45 - 1st
Model says Los Angeles Clippers by 0.7. The book line says Los Angeles Clippers by 1.5. So the model leans Los Angeles Lakers +1.5. Total: model 229.2, book 225.5 β€” leans over.
Quarter records so far: Q1 LAL 2-2 vs LAC 2-1 Β· Q2 LAL 3-1 vs LAC 1-2 Β· Q3 LAL 2-1-1 vs LAC 1-2 Β· Q4 LAL 1-3 vs LAC 2-1
🎯 Model pick Β· πŸ”’ locked pick
Against the spread: LAL +1.5
Total points: Over 225.5
Winner: LAC (-112) Β· 52%
πŸ”’ Locked 10:04 PM ET
Locked pick: spread LAL vs DK -1.5 Β· total over (model 229.2 vs 225.5) Β· ML LAC (52%)
Model says
Los Angeles Clippers by 0.7 Β· win chance 52%
Model total points
229.2 (gap +4.7 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -1.5 Β· total 224.5
moneyline -108 / -112
Model margin built from
efficiency -1.31 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-0.8 pts vs book line
Rest days
LAL 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· LAC 2d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
LAL +2.8 Β· LAC +1.5
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: LAL 4 players Β· LAC 0 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) -0.7 vs official +0.7 β€” LAL +1.4 (Adou Thiero -0.6, Ziaire Williams -0.8) Β· LAC βˆ’0.0 (β€”) Β· unknown value: Cameron Carr, Luka Doncic
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Los Angeles Clippers +0.7 (52% to win outright). DK has Los Angeles Clippers -1.5. Model-vs-line gap: -0.8 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-1.31) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
πŸ”’ Locked 10:04 PM ET: spread LAL vs DK -1.5 Β· total over Β· ML LAC (52%).
Los Angeles Lakers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Los Angeles Lakers (LAL) ranks #13 at +2.8 net β€” 119.6 offense, 116.8 defense, 98.8 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (119.6 pts/100)
Los Angeles Clippers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Los Angeles Clippers (LAC) ranks #15 at +1.5 net β€” 116.5 offense, 115.0 defense, 97.2 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test β€” a league-average profile.
The exploitation map
Rest gap: Los Angeles Lakers on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Rest is the story tonight β€” a back-to-back against fresh legs, and the model's 0.0 rest price is the thing to be honest about.
The biggest swing factor is Cameron Carr (Out for Los Angeles Lakers β€” Oblique Strain).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Los Angeles Lakers: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Los Angeles Clippers: 2d rest
Injuries
Los Angeles Lakers: Cameron Carr (Out β€” Oblique Strain (return 2026-10-30)); Adou Thiero (Out β€” Knee Inflammation (return 2026-10-30)); Ziaire Williams (Out β€” Foot (return 2026-10-30)); Luka Doncic (Out β€” Back (return 2026-10-30)).
Line movement
Spread +5.5 β†’ -1.5
Model total 229.2 vs listed 224.5 (edge +4.7) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
Thu Oct 29 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· 10/29 - 8:00 PM EDT
Model says Atlanta Hawks by 1.9. The book line says Atlanta Hawks by 1.5. So the model leans Atlanta Hawks -1.5. Total: model 233.7, book 239.5 β€” leans under. Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Quarter records so far: Q1 CLE 2-2 vs ATL 2-3 Β· Q2 CLE 2-2 vs ATL 2-2-1 Β· Q3 CLE 3-1 vs ATL 2-2-1 Β· Q4 CLE 1-2-1 vs ATL 3-1-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Against the spread: ATL -1.5
Total points: Under 239.5
Winner: ATL (-110) Β· 56%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model says
Atlanta Hawks by 1.9 Β· win chance 56%
Model total points
233.7 (gap -5.8 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -1.5 Β· total 239.5
moneyline -110 / -110
Model margin built from
efficiency -0.06 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+0.4 pts vs book line
Rest days
CLE 0d rest πŸ” B2B Β· ATL 0d rest πŸ” B2B
Efficiency (net rating)
CLE +3.5 Β· ATL +3.5
last season counts for 84%
Injury report: CLE 0 players Β· ATL 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +2.4 vs official +1.9 β€” CLE βˆ’0.0 (β€”) Β· ATL +0.4 (Mouhamed Gueye -0.4) Β· unknown value: Henri Veesaar
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Atlanta Hawks +1.9 (56% to win outright). DK has Atlanta Hawks -1.5. Model-vs-line gap: +0.4 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-0.06) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS ATL; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Cleveland Cavaliers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE) ranks #10 at +3.5 net β€” 118.1 offense, 114.6 defense, 100.5 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third offense (118.1 pts/100)
Atlanta Hawks β€” strengths & weaknesses
Atlanta Hawks (ATL) ranks #11 at +3.5 net β€” 116.4 offense, 113.0 defense, 101.8 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ top-third defense (113.0 allowed/100)
βœ“ plays fast (101.8 pace)
The exploitation map
Cleveland Cavaliers's elite offense runs into Atlanta Hawks's lockdown defense β€” strength on strength.
Rest gap: Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Strength on strength decides this one β€” the elite-offense-vs-lockdown-defense battle is the game.
The biggest swing factor is Mouhamed Gueye (Out for Atlanta Hawks β€” Foot Fracture).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Cleveland Cavaliers: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Atlanta Hawks: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Atlanta Hawks: Mouhamed Gueye (Out β€” Foot Fracture (return 2026-11-20)); Henri Veesaar (Out β€” Knee (return 2027-07-01)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -1.5
Model total 233.7 vs listed 239.5 (edge -5.8) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Thu Oct 29 Β· 8:00 PM EDT Β· 10/29 - 8:00 PM EDT
Model says New Orleans Pelicans by 9.0. The book line says New Orleans Pelicans by 5.5. So the model leans New Orleans Pelicans -5.5. Total: model 233.3, book 238.5 β€” leans under. Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Quarter records so far: Q1 SAC 2-2 vs NO 1-3 Β· Q2 SAC 1-3 vs NO 3-1 Β· Q3 SAC 1-3 vs NO 3-1 Β· Q4 SAC 1-2-1 vs NO 0-4
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Against the spread: NO -5.5
Total points: Under 238.5
Winner: NO (-205) Β· 75%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model says
New Orleans Pelicans by 9.0 Β· win chance 75%
Model total points
233.3 (gap -5.2 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -5.5 Β· total 238.5
moneyline +170 / -205
Model margin built from
efficiency +6.96 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
+3.5 pts vs book line
Rest days
SAC 1d rest Β· NO 0d rest πŸ” B2B
Efficiency (net rating)
SAC -11.3 Β· NO -4.3
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: SAC 4 players Β· NO 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +5.7 vs official +9.0 β€” SAC +4.4 (Dylan Cardwell -0.8, Maxime Raynaud -1.3, Keegan Murray -2.2) Β· NO +1.1 (Jordan Poole -0.4, Yves Missi -0.7) Β· unknown value: Ben Simmons
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes New Orleans Pelicans +9.0 (75% to win outright). DK has New Orleans Pelicans -5.5. Model-vs-line gap: +3.5 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+6.96) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS NO; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Sacramento Kings β€” strengths & weaknesses
Sacramento Kings (SAC) ranks #30 at -11.3 net β€” 110.7 offense, 122.0 defense, 99.4 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ— bottom-third offense (110.7 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (122.0 allowed/100)
New Orleans Pelicans β€” strengths & weaknesses
New Orleans Pelicans (NO) ranks #22 at -4.3 net β€” 114.8 offense, 119.1 defense, 100.5 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (100.5 pace)
βœ— bottom-third defense (119.1 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
The worst faucet meets a leaky pipe: Sacramento Kings (110.7 pts/100) may not punish New Orleans Pelicans's 119.1 allowed.
Rest gap: New Orleans Pelicans on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 β€” this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The key question is whether the weak offense can punish the leaky defense β€” usually it can't, and that decides the game.
The biggest swing factor is Dylan Cardwell (Out for Sacramento Kings β€” Calf Strain).
Verdict: a mild lean at best β€” under the 5pt bar, not a play.
Rest
Sacramento Kings: 1d rest
New Orleans Pelicans: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back β€” NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Sacramento Kings: Dylan Cardwell (Out β€” Calf Strain (return 2026-11-06)); Maxime Raynaud (Out β€” Knee Dislocated (return 2026-11-10)); Keegan Murray (Out β€” Ankle (return 2026-11-06)); Ben Simmons (Out β€” Achilles Surgery (return 2027-10-01)).
New Orleans Pelicans: Jordan Poole (Day-To-Day β€” Ankle (return 2026-10-29)); Yves Missi (Out β€” Knee Bruise (return 2026-11-02)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -5.5
Model total 233.3 vs listed 238.5 (edge -5.2) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
Thu Oct 29 Β· 10:00 PM EDT Β· 10/29 - 10:00 PM EDT
Model says Portland Trail Blazers by 7.4. The book line says Portland Trail Blazers by 7.5. So the model leans Memphis Grizzlies +7.5. Total: model 232.2, book 233.5 β€” leans under. The injury shadow disagrees β€” it leans Portland Trail Blazers. Locks at 9:30 PM ET.
Quarter records so far: Q1 MEM 1-3 vs POR 1-2 Β· Q2 MEM 3-1 vs POR 3-0 Β· Q3 MEM 2-2 vs POR 3-0 Β· Q4 MEM 3-1 vs POR 1-1-1
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
Against the spread: MEM +7.5
Total points: Under 233.5
Winner: POR (-265) Β· 71%
⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
Model says
Portland Trail Blazers by 7.4 Β· win chance 71%
Model total points
232.2 (gap -1.3 vs book)
Book line (DraftKings)
spread -7.5 Β· total 233.5
moneyline +215 / -265
Model margin built from
efficiency +5.39 + home court 2.0 + rest (0.0, not priced)
-0.1 pts vs book line
Rest days
MEM 2d rest Β· POR 1d rest
Efficiency (net rating)
MEM -3.4 Β· POR +2.0
last season counts for 88%
Injury report: MEM 0 players Β· POR 2 players
🩹 Injury shadow (NOT wired β€” forward test): margin (home) +8.5 vs official +7.4 β€” MEM βˆ’0.0 (β€”) Β· POR +1.1 (Chris Youngblood -0.3, Shaedon Sharpe -0.9)
πŸ“– Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Portland Trail Blazers +7.4 (71% to win outright). DK has Portland Trail Blazers -7.5. Model-vs-line gap: -0.1 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+5.39) + home court (2.0, tested 2021-22–2024-25); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: ATS MEM; Locks at 9:30 PM ET.
Memphis Grizzlies β€” strengths & weaknesses
Memphis Grizzlies (MEM) ranks #21 at -3.4 net β€” 113.6 offense, 117.0 defense, 101.0 pace. 4 games played; priors carry 84% of the blend.
βœ“ plays fast (101.0 pace)
βœ— bottom-third offense (113.6 pts/100)
βœ— bottom-third defense (117.0 allowed/100)
Portland Trail Blazers β€” strengths & weaknesses
Portland Trail Blazers (POR) ranks #14 at +2.0 net β€” 116.1 offense, 114.2 defense, 100.5 pace. 3 games played; priors carry 88% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test β€” a league-average profile.
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test β€” neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates β€” this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Chris Youngblood (Out for Portland Trail Blazers β€” Ankle Soreness).
Verdict: nothing clears the bar β€” the price is the game.
Rest
Memphis Grizzlies: 2d rest
Portland Trail Blazers: 1d rest
Injuries
Portland Trail Blazers: Chris Youngblood (Out β€” Ankle Soreness (return 2026-10-29)); Shaedon Sharpe (Out β€” Knee Surgery (return 2027-03-02)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -7.5
Model total 232.2 vs listed 233.5 (edge -1.3) β€” the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Forward-test hypothesis only. These are the model's strongest reads for this slate β€” not bets, not edges. Locked picks are the official basis; pre-lock rows are early looks β€” not official. Every locked pick is graded from game one (Record tab); the board is judged as a forward test after ~100 graded plays with CLV tracked.

Top spread reads ranked by gap vs book line

#GameModel sideModel marginGap vs bookBook spreadBasis
#1Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:30 PM EDT		Oklahoma City Thunder-14.2-8.75.5πŸ”’ locked pick
#2Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Thu Oct 29 · 8:00 PM EDT		New Orleans Pelicans+9.0+3.5-5.5⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#3Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Wed Oct 28 Β· 10:30 PM EDT		Los Angeles Lakers+0.7-0.8-1.5πŸ”’ locked pick
#4Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
Thu Oct 29 · 8:00 PM EDT		Atlanta Hawks+1.9+0.4-1.5⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#5Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
Thu Oct 29 · 10:00 PM EDT		Memphis Grizzlies+7.4-0.1-7.5⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET

Top moneyline reads ranked by model win chance

#GameModel sideWin chanceBook MLBasis
#1San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:00 PM EDT		San Antonio Spurs86%-800πŸ”’ locked pick
#2Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:30 PM EDT		Oklahoma City Thunder85%-192πŸ”’ locked pick
#3Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Thu Oct 29 · 8:00 PM EDT		New Orleans Pelicans75%-205⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#4Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
Thu Oct 29 · 10:00 PM EDT		Portland Trail Blazers71%-265⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
#5Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
Thu Oct 29 · 8:00 PM EDT		Atlanta Hawks56%-110⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET

Top totals reads ranked by gap vs book total

#GameModel sideModel totalGap vs bookBook totalBasis
#1Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks
Thu Oct 29 · 8:00 PM EDT		under233.7-5.8239.5⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#2Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
Thu Oct 29 · 8:00 PM EDT		under233.3-5.2238.5⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
#3Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Wed Oct 28 Β· 10:30 PM EDT		over229.2+3.7225.5πŸ”’ locked pick
#4San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:00 PM EDT		over235.2+2.7232.5πŸ”’ locked pick
#5Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
Wed Oct 28 Β· 9:30 PM EDT		under227.0-1.5228.5πŸ”’ locked pick
Forward-test hypothesis only. The value board is not a system, not bets, not edges. Judged after ~100 graded plays with CLV tracked. Bar: 5+ pt model-vs-line gap. Every locked pick is graded from game one β€” see the Record tab.
How to read: "Model says" is who the model thinks wins and by how much. "Gap vs book" is model minus book line. "Lean" is the side the gap points to, with its line. A πŸ“ flag means the gap cleared the 5-point bar.
DateGameModel sideGap vs bookBook lineBasis
Wed Oct 28OKC @ DALOklahoma City Thunder-8.75.5πŸ”’ locked pick
Wed Oct 28WSH @ CLECleveland Cavaliers+6.0-9.5πŸ”’ locked pick

All games, model vs line

GameModel saysBook lineGap vs bookLeanModel total ptsBook totalTotal gap
MIA @ ATL+5.7 ATL-2.5+3.2ATL -2.5235.7243.5-7.8
WSH @ CLE+15.5 CLE-9.5+6.0CLE -9.5 πŸ“234.7240.5-5.8
CHA @ DET+6.7 DET-7.5-0.8CHA +7.5224.8212.5+12.3
PHI @ IND-4.8 PHI7.5+2.7IND +7.5229.8234.5-4.7
ORL @ TOR+5.9 TOR-5.5+0.4TOR -5.5226.6224.5+2.1
NY @ CHI-10.4 NY7.5-2.9NY -7.5230.3233.5-3.2
HOU @ MIL-10.0 HOU8.5-1.5HOU -8.5226.4226.5-0.1
GS @ MIN+8.4 MIN-3.5+4.9MIN -3.5229.4227.5+1.9
DEN @ NO-5.8 DEN4.5-1.3DEN -4.5235.2241.5-6.3
SA @ UTAH-14.4 SA13.5-0.9SA -13.5235.2232.5+2.7
OKC @ DAL-14.2 OKC4.5-9.7OKC -4.5 πŸ“227.0227.5-0.5
LAL @ LAC+0.7 LAC-1.5-0.8LAL +1.5229.2224.5+4.7
CLE @ ATL+1.9 ATL-1.5+0.4ATL -1.5233.7239.5-5.8
SAC @ NO+9.0 NO-5.5+3.5NO -5.5233.3238.5-5.2
MEM @ POR+7.4 POR-7.5-0.1MEM +7.5232.2233.5-1.3
How to read: this tab shows where the betting money is going β€” tickets (how many bets) vs money (how many dollars) on each side. It does not predict winners and never feeds the model. A side with far more money than tickets is where the big bets are.
🌊 Money flow day by day
consensus league avg ticket% vs handle% on the favorite Β· gap = sharp divergence
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%10/2110/2210/2310/2410/2510/2610/2710/2810/30Tickets on fav 10/21: 67.6%Tickets on fav 10/22: 78.8%Tickets on fav 10/23: 82.5%Tickets on fav 10/24: 81.9%Tickets on fav 10/25: 89.2%Tickets on fav 10/26: 68.2%Handle on fav 10/21: 59.0%Handle on fav 10/22: 67.0%Handle on fav 10/23: 77.7%Handle on fav 10/24: 72.9%Handle on fav 10/25: 86.0%Handle on fav 10/26: 65.8%Tickets on favHandle on fav

10/21: 11g 3 lopsided 3 sharp-div 6 2-src Β· 10/22: 2g 1 lopsided 1 sharp-div 2 2-src Β· 10/23: 12g 9 lopsided 2 sharp-div 11 2-src Β· 10/24: 8g 5 lopsided 2 sharp-div 8 2-src Β· 10/25: 7g 5 lopsided 2 sharp-div 7 2-src Β· 10/26: 9g 4 lopsided 6 sharp-div 7 2-src Β· 10/27: 4g 2 lopsided 1 sharp-div 4 2-src Β· 10/28: 12g 6 lopsided 5 sharp-div 9 2-src Β· 10/30: 4g 0 lopsided 3 sharp-div 0 2-src

9 days of splits so far β€” early-season averages are thin; a 2-game day swings wildly.

Lopsided = a side drew 75%+ of the money. Sharp-div = handle% βˆ’ tickets% β‰₯ 15 on a team. Favorite = negative-moneyline side (pick’em games excluded from favorite averages). 2-src = games covered by both sources that day.

πŸ“Š Bet differential day by day
tickets vs money vs over% β€” and the money-minus-tickets gap
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%10/2110/2210/2310/2410/2510/2610/2710/2810/30Tickets (bets%) 10/21: 67.6%Tickets (bets%) 10/22: 78.8%Tickets (bets%) 10/23: 82.5%Tickets (bets%) 10/24: 81.9%Tickets (bets%) 10/25: 89.2%Tickets (bets%) 10/26: 68.2%Money (handle%) 10/21: 59.0%Money (handle%) 10/22: 67.0%Money (handle%) 10/23: 77.7%Money (handle%) 10/24: 72.9%Money (handle%) 10/25: 86.0%Money (handle%) 10/26: 65.8%Over% 10/21: 45.8%Over% 10/22: 84.0%Over% 10/23: 67.2%Over% 10/24: 47.5%Over% 10/25: 58.4%Over% 10/26: 37.1%Over% 10/27: 58.2%Over% 10/28: 46.0%Tickets (bets%)Money (handle%)Over%
Bet differential (handle% βˆ’ tickets%)
positive = money heavier than tickets
+11.8%βˆ’11.8%10/21: -8.6pp10/21-8.610/22: -11.8pp10/22-11.810/23: -4.8pp10/23-4.810/24: -9.0pp10/24-9.010/25: -3.2pp10/25-3.210/26: -2.4pp10/26-2.4
πŸ“… Day detail
every game that day β€” consensus of the reporting sources

Day

Sources: 2 src = both books reported; Ξ” = max ticket% disagreement between the sources on the moneyline sides. 1 src = only one book reported β€” consensus equals that book, treated as single-book, not consensus.

Move = biggest intraday handle swing on a moneyline side (earliest β†’ latest snapshot of the day, consensus); ⚑ = 10+ point swing. 🧊 = frozen line: handle swung 10+ pts while the cleatz moneyline price moved ≀2 pts of implied probability over the same window. n snaps = snapshots feeding the move. Numbers refresh every ~30 min through the day.

πŸ€ Team splits
that team's consensus tickets vs money, day by day

Team

Splits: consensus: cleatz.com + wiseguyteam.com (DraftKings). Display only β€” not a model input.

How to read: each row is one locked pick, graded after the game. Spread = did the pick cover the book line? Winner = did the picked team win? Totals = over or under the book total? W–L–P = wins, losses, pushes (ties).
Against the spread locked spread pick vs locked book line
34–25–0

57.6% (pushes excluded)

Winner (moneyline) locked winner pick vs actual winner
40–19

67.8%

Totals locked total pick vs locked book total
27–32–0

45.8% (pushes excluded)

Best Bets – Spread top-5 spread picks per slate
22–13–0

62.9% (pushes excluded)

Best Bets – Winner top-5 winner picks per slate
23–11

67.6%

Best Bets – Totals top-5 totals picks per slate
18–18–0

50.0% (pushes excluded)

Record is real and graded from game one. One honest caveat: early-season games were graded on priors-heavy ratings (paper-trade phase until ~15–20 games/team, early Dec) β€” the inputs were thin, the grades are not. 59 graded Β· 2 voided (excluded) Β· 3 locked, awaiting final. Basis is fixed: locked pick vs locked line, append-only, never moved mid-flight. Best Bets records track the same locked rows β€” top-5 reads per market per slate β€” on the identical basis.

Game log

DateGameSpread pickSpreadTotal pickTotalWinner pickWinnerBB
Oct 21ATL @ ORL
132–125		ATL +2.5WUnder 233.5LORLLβ€”
Oct 21MIN @ MIA
131–106		MIA -1.5LUnder 240.5WMIALβ˜…T
Oct 21CHA @ BKN
110–103		CHA -1.5WOver 219.5LCHAWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 21CHI @ TOR
92–135		TOR -10.5WUnder 237.5WTORWβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 21UTAH @ MEM
103–123		MEM -1.5WUnder 240.5WMEMWβ˜…S
Oct 21IND @ NO
123–120		NO +2.5LUnder 238.5LNOLβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 21DAL @ HOU
110–128		HOU -10.5WUnder 230.5LHOUWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 21GS @ LAL
105–127		GS +6.5LUnder 233.5WLALWβ€”
Oct 21PHX @ POR
83–124		PHX +2.5LUnder 231.5WPORWβ˜…T
Oct 21SAC @ LAC
96–121		LAC -5.5WOver 226.5LLACWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 22CLE @ PHI
106–114		CLE +2.5LUnder 236.5WCLELβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 22DEN @ OKC
84–96		OKC -7.5WUnder 236.5WOKCWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 23ATL @ CHA
128–81		CHA +2.5LOver 226.5LCHALβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 23DAL @ IND
121–105		DAL +7.5WUnder 239.5WINDLβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 23MIN @ ORL
115–93		MIN +1.5WUnder 234.5WMINWβ˜…T
Oct 23TOR @ WSH
112–102		TOR -9.5WUnder 236.5WTORWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 23DET @ MIA
128–111		DET -1.5WUnder 234.5LDETWβ€”
Oct 23HOU @ SA
114–110		SA -4.5LOver 224.5LSALβ˜…M
Oct 23NO @ UTAH
119–120		NO +1.5WUnder 238.5LNOLβ˜…S
Oct 23MEM @ GS
111–108		GS -4.5LUnder 236.5WGSLβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 23LAC @ LAL
117–125		LAC +8.5WOver 225.5WLALWβ˜…S
Oct 23POR @ SAC
128–120		SAC +9.5WUnder 231.5LPORWβ˜…M
Oct 24MIA @ CHA
110–115		CHA +4.5WOver 228.5LCHAWβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 24BKN @ CLE
121–125		CLE -11.5LUnder 228.5LCLEWβ˜…M
Oct 24MIL @ PHI
116–127		MIL +13.5WUnder 234.5LPHIWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 24WSH @ CHI
124–120		CHI -1.5LUnder 244.5WCHILβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 24SA @ DAL
122–106		DAL +14.5LOver 229.5LSAWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 24HOU @ ATL
121–114		ATL +1.5LOver 227.5WATLLβ€”
Oct 24NO @ DEN
135–141		NO +11.5WUnder 239.5LDENWβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 24GS @ PHX
122–131		GS +9.5WOver 221.5WPHXWβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 25LAL @ UTAH
132–123		LAL -6.5WUnder 237.5LLALWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 25IND @ BKN
136–109		BKN +6.5LUnder 231.5LINDWβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 25ORL @ NY
111–102		NY -6.5LOver 224.5LNYLβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 25TOR @ MIN
94–117		TOR +3.5LUnder 228.5WMINWβ˜…T
Oct 25LAC @ OKC
101–108		LAC +16.5WUnder 224.5WOKCWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 25DET @ PHI
106–93		DET -1.5WUnder 228.5WDETWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 25MEM @ SAC
123–112		MEM -3.5WUnder 234.5LMEMWβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 26WSH @ CHA
103–110		CHA -2.5WOver 227.5LCHAWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 26MIN @ CLE
125–127		MIN +3.5WUnder 234.5LMINLβ˜…S
Oct 26CHI @ BOS
99–134		BOS -13.5WUnder 233.5WBOSWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 26DAL @ MIA
113–109		MIA -7.5LUnder 240.5WMIALβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 26IND @ MIL
102–110		MIL +3.5WUnder 238.5WMILWβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 26PHX @ OKC
114–125		OKC -8.5WOver 221.5WOKCWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 26ATL @ HOU
110–120		ATL +4.5LUnder 229.5LHOUWβ€”
Oct 26MEM @ UTAH
110–105		MEM -1.5WOver 237.5LMEMWβ€”
Oct 26GS @ DEN
134–114		DEN -7.5LUnder 236.5LDENLβ˜…M β˜…T
Oct 27BKN @ BOS
124–125		BOS -12.5LUnder 222.5LBOSWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 27DET @ NY
97–111		DET +3.5LOver 219.5LDETLβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 27SAC @ SA
103–130		SA -18.5WUnder 232.5LSAWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 27POR @ LAL
136–129		LAL -1.5LUnder 233.5LLALLβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 28MIA @ ATL
129–117		ATL -2.5LUnder 241.5LATLLβ˜…S β˜…T
Oct 28WSH @ CLE
111–121		CLE -9.5WUnder 240.5WCLEWβ˜…S β˜…M β˜…T
Oct 28CHA @ DET
89–97		CHA +7.5LOver 212.5LDETWβ˜…T
Oct 28PHI @ IND
114–109		IND +7.5WUnder 234.5WPHIWβ˜…T
Oct 28ORL @ TOR
99–129		TOR -4.5WOver 224.5WTORWβ€”
Oct 28NY @ CHI
133–127		NY -6.5LUnder 232.5LNYWβ˜…S β˜…M
Oct 28HOU @ MIL
132–100		HOU -8.5WUnder 226.5LHOUWβ˜…M
Oct 28GS @ MIN
119–114		MIN -4.5LOver 227.5WMINLβ˜…S
Oct 28DEN @ NO
104–91		DEN -4.5WUnder 240.5WDENWβ˜…T
Oct 21MIL @ WSH
voided β€” excluded from record		Locked while CHO/BRK/PHO/WAS silently ran 0.0 net ratings (BREF2ESPN mapping bug) β€” corrupted basis. Graded 2-1 (WSH 128-116: spread WSH -4.
Oct 23NY @ BOS
voided — excluded from record		Locked while NYK silently ran 0.0 net rating (BREF2ESPN mapping bug — missing NYK→NY entry) — corrupted basis. Graded 2-1 (BOS 107-103: spre

Running record by week

WeekSpreadSpread runWinnerWinner runTotalsTotals run
Wk of Oct 1922–15–022–15–025–1225–1218–19–018–19–0
Wk of Oct 2612–10–034–25–015–740–199–13–027–32–0
The core question

Not "are we smarter than the line." Instead: "what's in the line, and which part can we see through?"

line = efficiency truth + rest/B2B state + public shade + brand tax + key-number rounding + vig.
The model projects only the parts it can measure honestly (efficiency truth, schedule state) and keeps them separable from the parts it can't (shade, brand tax, vig) β€” so every gap vs the line can be asked which component is this?

Pick-lock rule

Picks lock 30 minutes before tipoff. At that moment the model's spread side, total side, and moneyline side are frozen together with the DraftKings spread, total, and moneyline as they stand then.

Efficiency core

Net rating (offensive βˆ’ defensive rating, pace-adjusted) blended: curr_w = min(1, gp/20) * 0.8 ; prior_w = 1 - curr_w. Prior = 2025-26 final ratings. HFA = 2.0 pts (walk-forward tested 2021-22–2024-25, pooled 1.99). Win chance from a bell curve, width 13.5 (untested).

Every factor beyond the efficiency core is walk-forward tested before wiring. Nothing enters the projection on theory alone. Rest/B2B edge is currently 0.0 β€” displayed, logged daily to the rest log for the future backtest, not priced in.

Honest limits

Team net ratings

Offense/defense = points per 100 possessions. Net rating = offense minus defense. Last-season weight = how much of the rating still comes from last season.

AbbrTeamNet ratingOffenseDefensePaceGamesLast-season weight
OKCOklahoma City Thunder+11.10117.8106.799.3484%
BOSBoston Celtics+8.07120.3112.395.5484%
SASan Antonio Spurs+8.04118.9110.8100.1484%
DETDetroit Pistons+7.85117.4109.599.2484%
HOUHouston Rockets+6.11119.0112.996.7484%
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+5.40117.0111.6100.6484%
NYNew York Knicks+5.27117.6112.397.0484%
TORToronto Raptors+3.69115.0111.399.2388%
DENDenver Nuggets+3.53121.4117.998.2388%
CLECleveland Cavaliers+3.52118.1114.6100.5388%
ATLAtlanta Hawks+3.46116.4113.0101.8484%
CHACharlotte Hornets+3.07117.3114.297.0484%
LALLos Angeles Lakers+2.80119.6116.898.8484%
PORPortland Trail Blazers+1.97116.1114.2100.5388%
LACLos Angeles Clippers+1.46116.5115.097.2388%
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+0.38113.8113.4100.2484%
MIAMiami Heat-0.12114.9115.1103.4484%
ORLOrlando Magic-0.25113.8114.1100.4388%
PHXPhoenix Suns-0.42114.8115.297.0388%
GSGolden State Warriors-1.07115.7116.898.5484%
MEMMemphis Grizzlies-3.38113.6117.0101.0484%
NONew Orleans Pelicans-4.34114.8119.1100.5388%
DALDallas Mavericks-4.99111.2116.2101.7484%
MILMilwaukee Bucks-6.22112.8119.098.7484%
INDIndiana Pacers-6.41111.3117.7101.3484%
CHIChicago Bulls-7.08111.4118.5103.3484%
UTAHUtah Jazz-8.20113.7121.9102.1484%
WSHWashington Wizards-9.86111.2121.1101.5484%
BKNBrooklyn Nets-10.14108.7118.997.9484%
SACSacramento Kings-11.30110.7122.099.4484%
Quarter wins + scoring only. No quarter spread or total lines exist in free sources, so there are no against-the-spread or over/under columns here β€” a quarter win is a quarter moneyline win. Overtime periods excluded. Display only β€” not a model input.

65 finished games since Oct 20. 32 tied quarters (counted as neither win nor loss). Click a header to sort.

Quarter records W-L per quarter, season to date

TeamGPQ1Q2Q3Q4All QQ win%
Toronto Raptors43-13-12-24-012-40.8%
Portland Trail Blazers31-23-03-01-1-18-30.7%
Houston Rockets54-13-1-13-1-12-2-112-50.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves54-13-24-12-2-113-60.7%
San Antonio Spurs42-23-12-22-0-29-50.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder43-12-22-1-12-29-60.6%
Boston Celtics42-22-0-23-11-38-60.6%
Memphis Grizzlies41-33-12-23-19-70.6%
New York Knicks54-12-31-2-23-210-80.6%
Washington Wizards54-12-33-22-311-90.6%
Los Angeles Lakers42-23-12-1-11-38-70.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers42-22-23-11-2-18-70.5%
Atlanta Hawks52-32-2-12-2-13-1-19-80.5%
Detroit Pistons53-20-4-13-24-110-90.5%
Indiana Pacers51-3-12-34-13-210-90.5%
Philadelphia 76ers51-3-11-3-14-13-29-90.5%
Golden State Warriors53-22-32-33-210-100.5%
Los Angeles Clippers32-11-21-22-16-60.5%
Charlotte Hornets52-2-14-12-31-49-100.5%
Utah Jazz43-12-20-3-12-27-80.5%
New Orleans Pelicans41-33-13-10-47-90.4%
Dallas Mavericks41-32-22-22-27-90.4%
Miami Heat52-2-12-31-42-2-17-110.4%
Denver Nuggets43-11-30-42-26-100.4%
Milwaukee Bucks52-32-32-31-47-130.3%
Orlando Magic41-31-31-2-12-25-100.3%
Brooklyn Nets42-20-3-11-32-25-100.3%
Sacramento Kings42-21-31-31-2-15-100.3%
Phoenix Suns30-31-21-1-11-1-13-70.3%
Chicago Bulls50-53-1-10-4-12-35-130.3%

Quarter scoring points for / against per quarter, per game

TeamGPQ1 PFQ1 PAQ2 PFQ2 PAQ3 PFQ3 PAQ4 PFQ4 PATot PFTot PA
Atlanta Hawks529.429.832.629.427.429.230.826.8120.2115.2
Boston Celtics428.226.529.225.833.025.827.232.0117.8110.0
Brooklyn Nets427.528.027.232.826.031.831.829.5112.5122.0
Charlotte Hornets523.825.829.826.625.227.022.228.8101.0108.2
Chicago Bulls524.234.032.428.028.637.828.830.4114.0130.2
Cleveland Cavaliers432.030.229.526.829.528.025.229.8116.2114.8
Dallas Mavericks431.029.526.028.829.529.826.028.0112.5116.0
Denver Nuggets430.027.024.528.524.532.228.024.0107.0111.8
Detroit Pistons532.224.619.826.828.627.629.224.4109.8103.4
Golden State Warriors530.028.827.228.631.433.229.028.8117.6119.4
Houston Rockets529.827.032.222.230.629.230.430.4123.0108.8
Indiana Pacers528.631.426.830.832.023.627.629.0115.0114.8
Los Angeles Clippers330.726.326.327.329.329.726.726.3113.0109.7
Los Angeles Lakers432.035.837.228.033.526.225.530.2128.2120.2
Memphis Grizzlies429.228.533.026.029.529.225.023.2116.8107.0
Miami Heat530.030.828.231.025.231.429.627.6113.0120.8
Milwaukee Bucks526.425.626.233.234.835.026.030.4113.4124.2
Minnesota Timberwolves529.225.428.627.630.623.429.628.6118.0105.0
New Orleans Pelicans428.832.530.225.531.827.023.233.2114.0118.2
New York Knicks527.828.225.424.627.226.429.430.4109.8109.6
Oklahoma City Thunder428.525.526.222.230.028.526.524.5111.2100.8
Orlando Magic424.828.527.234.024.828.230.228.8107.0119.5
Philadelphia 76ers524.428.829.430.227.425.029.623.4110.8107.4
Phoenix Suns320.333.729.330.734.735.025.024.3109.3123.7
Portland Trail Blazers334.027.732.331.037.727.725.324.3129.3110.7
Sacramento Kings429.833.028.033.824.833.025.225.8107.8125.5
San Antonio Spurs431.531.531.228.527.226.826.523.0116.5109.8
Toronto Raptors432.525.228.825.826.027.530.224.0117.5102.5
Utah Jazz432.529.026.533.026.233.027.526.0112.8121.0
Washington Wizards527.427.427.230.830.227.428.830.2113.6115.8

πŸ”„ Roster moves trades, signings, waivers

Newest first. πŸ”” marks moves flagged as notable.

2026-10-27 Β· MIN β€” Signed F Enrique Freeman to a two-way contract.
2026-10-23 Β· SAC β€” Signed G Sean Pedulla to a two-way contract.
2026-10-23 Β· NY β€” Waived G Kevin McCullar Jr..
2026-10-19 Β· SAC β€” Waived G Adam Flagler.
πŸ”” 2026-10-19 Β· PHX β€” Signed F Oso Ighodaro to a multiyear contract extension. Claimed F Drew Timme off waivers. Converted C Duop Reath's contract to a two-way contract. Waived F CJ Huntley and G Koby Brea.
2026-10-19 Β· OKC β€” Re-signed G Cason Wallace to a rookie-scale contract extension.
2026-10-19 Β· MIL β€” Waived G Kevin Porter Jr.
2026-10-19 Β· MEM β€” Waived G Walter Clayton Jr. and G Micah Peavy.
2026-10-19 Β· LAL β€” Waived F Dalton Knecht.
2026-10-19 Β· HOU β€” Waived Sean Pedulla. Converted Fs Oscar Tshiebwe and Julian Phillips's contract to two-way contracts.
2026-10-19 Β· DAL β€” Waived F Dwight Powell.
2026-10-19 Β· CHA β€” Signed G Brandon Miller to a multiyear contract extension.
2026-10-17 Β· WSH β€” Waived Gs Nolan Hickman, Trevor Keels, Alondes Williams and F Chris Livington.
πŸ”” 2026-10-17 Β· UTAH β€” Claimed C Tony Bradley off waivers. Converted the contract of F Harrison Ingram to a twpo-way contract. Waived C Jonas Aidoo and G Tamar Bates.
2026-10-17 Β· TOR β€” Converted the contract of C Nate Bittle to a two-way contract. Waived Gs Nimari Burnett, Jalen Celestine, Tyreke Key, F Tyson Degenhart and C Jamarion Sharp.
2026-10-17 Β· SAC β€” Waived Gs Elfrid Payton and Tristen Newton. Waived F Viktor Lakhin.
2026-10-17 Β· POR β€” Waived F Jeremy Sochan.
2026-10-17 Β· PHX β€” Waived G Kennedy Chandler and Fs Haywood Highsmith and Phillip Wheeler.
2026-10-17 Β· PHI β€” Waived Fs Cris Carroll, Taye Fields and Dillon Jones. Waived G Jameer Nelson Jr.
2026-10-17 Β· ORL β€” Waived Fs Malaki Branham and Kevin Knox II. Waived G JD Davison.
2026-10-17 Β· OKC β€” Waived F Buddy Boeheim, C Christoph Tilly and Gs. Nate Johnson, Dariq Whitehead and Lamar Wilderson.
2026-10-17 Β· NY β€” Waived Gs Bruce Brown and Dink Pate.
2026-10-17 Β· NO β€” Waived F Jalon Moore.
2026-10-17 Β· MIN β€” Waived Fs Enrique Freeman, KJ Martin, Norchad Omier, Drew Timme and G Antonio Reeves.
2026-10-17 Β· MIL β€” Waived Fs Johni Broome, Pete Nance, G Marcus Garrett and C Jake Stephens.
2026-10-17 Β· MIA β€” Waived Fs Ezra Ausar and Gabe Madsen. Waived G Bez Mbeng and C Kylor Kelley.
2026-10-17 Β· MEM β€” Waived F Zach Cleveland.
2026-10-17 Β· LAL β€” Waived C Rafael Castro and F Niwa Tait-Jones.
2026-10-17 Β· LAC β€” Signed G Cam Christie to a two-way contract. Waived Gs Miye Oni, Jahmyl Telfort and Blake Wesley.
2026-10-17 Β· IND β€” Waived Cs Keba Keita, Rienk Mast and F James Johnson.
2026-10-17 Β· HOU β€” Waived Gs Bryce Harris, Caleb McConnell and F Cameron Matthews.