🏀 NBA Model 2026-27 · paper trade · generated 2026-10-22 06:55 ET

Paper-trade phase: ratings run on 2025-26 priors + early-season noise. Rest/B2B shown and logged, not priced. Value flags are hypotheses, never bets.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Thu Oct 22 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/22 - 7:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
ATS: CLE +3.5
Total: Under 235.5
ML: CLE (+124) · 53%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
-1.0 · win prob 47%
Model total
231.4 (edge -4.1)
DK line
spread -3.5 · O/U 235.5
ML +124 / -148
Line decomposition
eff edge -3.96 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-4.5 pts vs DK spread
Rest
CLE season opener · PHI 1d rest
Net rating (efficiency core)
CLE +4.1 · PHI +0.1
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 3 / 4
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Philadelphia 76ers -1.0 (47% to win outright). DK has Philadelphia 76ers -3.5. Model-vs-line gap: -4.5 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-3.96) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread CLE; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Cleveland Cavaliers — strengths & weaknesses
Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE) ranks #11 at +4.1 net — 119.2 offense, 115.1 defense, 99.9 pace. 0 games played; priors carry 100% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (119.2 pts/100)
Philadelphia 76ers — strengths & weaknesses
Philadelphia 76ers (PHI) ranks #18 at +0.1 net — 114.9 offense, 114.7 defense, 99.6 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test — a league-average profile.
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test — neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates — this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Khalifa Diop (Out for Cleveland Cavaliers — Knee).
One honesty note: we're 100% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: a mild lean at best — under the 5pt bar, not a play.
Rest
Cleveland Cavaliers: season opener
Philadelphia 76ers: 1d rest
Injuries
Cleveland Cavaliers: Khalifa Diop (Out — Knee (return 2026-10-24)); Jarrett Allen (Day-To-Day — Knee (return 2026-10-22)); Nae'Qwan Tomlin (Out — Back (return 2026-11-16)).
Philadelphia 76ers: Tacko Fall (Out — Quadriceps (return 2026-10-24)); Dean Wade (Day-To-Day — Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-22)); Dominick Barlow (Out — Back (return 2026-11-02)); Ariel Hukporti (Out — Achilles Ruptured (return 2027-10-01)).
Line movement
Spread -4.5 → -3.5
Model total 231.4 vs listed 235.5 (edge -4.1) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Thu Oct 22 · 9:30 PM EDT · 10/22 - 9:30 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
ATS: OKC -8.5
Total: Under 235.5
ML: OKC (-340) · 75%
⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
Model margin (home)
+8.9 · win prob 75%
Model total
230.5 (edge -5.0)
DK line
spread -8.5 · O/U 235.5
ML +270 / -340
Line decomposition
eff edge +5.95 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+0.5 pts vs DK spread
Rest
DEN season opener · OKC 0d rest 🔁 B2B
Net rating (efficiency core)
DEN +5.2 · OKC +11.2
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 2 / 3
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Oklahoma City Thunder +8.9 (75% to win outright). DK has Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5. Model-vs-line gap: +0.5 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+5.95) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread OKC; Locks at 9:00 PM ET.
Denver Nuggets — strengths & weaknesses
Denver Nuggets (DEN) ranks #7 at +5.2 net — 122.6 offense, 117.4 defense, 98.4 pace. 0 games played; priors carry 100% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (122.6 pts/100)
✗ bottom-third defense (117.4 allowed/100)
Oklahoma City Thunder — strengths & weaknesses
Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) ranks #1 at +11.2 net — 118.6 offense, 107.4 defense, 99.5 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (118.6 pts/100)
✓ top-third defense (107.4 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Oklahoma City Thunder's top-third offense (118.6 pts/100) against Denver Nuggets's bottom-third defense (117.4 allowed) is the most direct exploitation on the board.
Denver Nuggets's elite offense runs into Oklahoma City Thunder's lockdown defense — strength on strength.
Rest gap: Oklahoma City Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 — this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The game is decided where the best offense meets the worst defense — that's the matchup that matters most.
The biggest swing factor is Julian Strawther (Out for Denver Nuggets — Knee Sprain).
One honesty note: we're 100% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar — the price is the game.
Rest
Denver Nuggets: season opener
Oklahoma City Thunder: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Denver Nuggets: Spencer Jones (Day-To-Day — Hamstring (return 2026-10-22)); Julian Strawther (Out — Knee Sprain (return 2026-11-29)).
Oklahoma City Thunder: Nikola Topic (Out — Back Surgery (return 2026-10-26)); Thomas Sorber (Out — Knee Surgery (return 2026-10-26)); Otega Oweh (Out — Achilles Surgery (return 2027-07-01)).
Line movement
Spread -7.5 → -8.5
Model total 230.5 vs listed 235.5 (edge -5.0) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks
Fri Oct 23 · 4:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 4:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 3:30 PM ET
ATS: MIL -1.5
Total: Under 239.5
ML: MIL (-110) · 58%
⏳ Locks at 3:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
+2.9 · win prob 58%
Model total
232.0 (edge -7.5)
DK line
spread -1.5 · O/U 239.5
ML -110 / -110
Line decomposition
eff edge -0.13 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+1.4 pts vs DK spread
Rest
CHI 1d rest · MIL 1d rest
Net rating (efficiency core)
CHI -6.5 · MIL -6.6
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 3 / 0
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Milwaukee Bucks +2.9 (58% to win outright). DK has Milwaukee Bucks -1.5. Model-vs-line gap: +1.4 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-0.13) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread MIL; Locks at 3:30 PM ET.
Chicago Bulls — strengths & weaknesses
Chicago Bulls (CHI) ranks #24 at -6.5 net — 111.9 offense, 118.3 defense, 102.7 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ plays fast (102.7 pace)
✗ bottom-third offense (111.9 pts/100)
✗ bottom-third defense (118.3 allowed/100)
Milwaukee Bucks — strengths & weaknesses
Milwaukee Bucks (MIL) ranks #25 at -6.6 net — 113.0 offense, 119.6 defense, 97.8 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✗ bottom-third offense (113.0 pts/100)
✗ bottom-third defense (119.6 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
The worst faucet meets a leaky pipe: Chicago Bulls (111.9 pts/100) may not punish Milwaukee Bucks's 119.6 allowed.
The worst faucet meets a leaky pipe: Milwaukee Bucks (113.0 pts/100) may not punish Chicago Bulls's 118.3 allowed.
Pace clash: Chicago Bulls wants it fast (102.7) while Milwaukee Bucks slows it down (97.8).
Torque's read
The key question is whether the weak offense can punish the leaky defense — usually it can't, and that decides the game.
The biggest swing factor is Nic Claxton (Out for Chicago Bulls — Hamstring).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar — the price is the game.
Rest
Chicago Bulls: 1d rest
Milwaukee Bucks: 1d rest
Injuries
Chicago Bulls: Dailyn Swain (Day-To-Day — Illness (return 2026-10-24)); Jordan Hawkins (Day-To-Day — Illness (return 2026-10-24)); Nic Claxton (Out — Hamstring (return 2026-11-04)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -1.5
Model total 232.0 vs listed 239.5 (edge -7.5) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
ATS: BOS -2.5
Total: Over 223.5
ML: BOS (-135) · 78%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
+10.3 · win prob 78%
Model total
224.0 (edge +0.5)
DK line
spread -2.5 · O/U 223.5
ML +114 / -135
Line decomposition
eff edge +7.26 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+7.8 pts vs DK spread
Rest
NY 2d rest · BOS 2d rest
Net rating (efficiency core)
NY +0.0 · BOS +7.5
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 0 / 1
📝 PAPER TRADE flag: model Boston Celtics by 7.8 pts vs line (≥5 bar). Forward-test hypothesis only — not a bet, not an edge.
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Boston Celtics +10.3 (78% to win outright). DK has Boston Celtics -2.5. Model-vs-line gap: +7.8 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+7.26) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread BOS; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
New York Knicks — strengths & weaknesses
New York Knicks: ratings unavailable.
Boston Celtics — strengths & weaknesses
Boston Celtics (BOS) ranks #4 at +7.5 net — 120.6 offense, 113.1 defense, 94.9 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (120.6 pts/100)
✓ top-third defense (113.1 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Ratings unavailable for one side — no exploitation map.
Torque's read
Without ratings on both sides, there's no map to read — the model's number stands on its own.
The biggest swing factor is Devin Carter (Out for Boston Celtics — Illness).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: the 7.8pt disagreement on Boston Celtics is the one to watch as the forward test — hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
New York Knicks: 2d rest
Boston Celtics: 2d rest
Injuries
Boston Celtics: Devin Carter (Out — Illness (return 2026-11-08)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -2.5
Model total 224.0 vs listed 223.5 (edge +0.5) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
ATS: CHA +2.5
Total: Over 226.5
ML: CHA (+120) · 66%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
+5.5 · win prob 66%
Model total
230.3 (edge +3.8)
DK line
spread 2.5 · O/U 226.5
ML -142 / +120
Line decomposition
eff edge +2.51 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+8.0 pts vs DK spread
Rest
ATL 1d rest · CHA 1d rest
Net rating (efficiency core)
ATL +2.6 · CHA +5.1
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 2 / 4
📝 PAPER TRADE flag: model Charlotte Hornets by 8.0 pts vs line (≥5 bar). Forward-test hypothesis only — not a bet, not an edge.
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Charlotte Hornets +5.5 (66% to win outright). DK has Atlanta Hawks -2.5. Model-vs-line gap: +8.0 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+2.51) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread CHA; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Atlanta Hawks — strengths & weaknesses
Atlanta Hawks (ATL) ranks #13 at +2.6 net — 116.3 offense, 113.7 defense, 102.0 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third defense (113.7 allowed/100)
✓ plays fast (102.0 pace)
Charlotte Hornets — strengths & weaknesses
Charlotte Hornets (CHA) ranks #8 at +5.1 net — 119.0 offense, 114.0 defense, 96.9 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (119.0 pts/100)
The exploitation map
Charlotte Hornets's elite offense runs into Atlanta Hawks's lockdown defense — strength on strength.
Pace clash: Atlanta Hawks wants it fast (102.0) while Charlotte Hornets slows it down (96.9).
Torque's read
Strength on strength decides this one — the elite-offense-vs-lockdown-defense battle is the game.
The biggest swing factor is Mouhamed Gueye (Out for Atlanta Hawks — Foot Fracture).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: the 8.0pt disagreement on Charlotte Hornets is the one to watch as the forward test — hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
Atlanta Hawks: 1d rest
Charlotte Hornets: 1d rest
Injuries
Atlanta Hawks: Mouhamed Gueye (Out — Foot Fracture (return 2026-11-20)); Henri Veesaar (Out — Knee (return 2027-07-01)).
Charlotte Hornets: Kon Knueppel (Day-To-Day — Hamstring (return 2026-10-23)); Kylan Boswell (Out — Knee (return 2026-11-02)); Grant Williams (Out — Hamstring (return 2026-10-23)); Coby White (Out — Calf Strain (return 2026-10-23)).
Line movement
Spread steady at +2.5
Model total 230.3 vs listed 226.5 (edge +3.8) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
ATS: DAL +5.5
Total: Under 234.5
ML: IND (-218) · 54%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
+1.3 · win prob 54%
Model total
232.1 (edge -2.4)
DK line
spread -5.5 · O/U 234.5
ML +180 / -218
Line decomposition
eff edge -1.67 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-4.2 pts vs DK spread
Rest
DAL 0d rest 🔁 B2B · IND 0d rest 🔁 B2B
Net rating (efficiency core)
DAL -5.8 · IND -7.5
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 5 / 3
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Indiana Pacers +1.3 (54% to win outright). DK has Indiana Pacers -5.5. Model-vs-line gap: -4.2 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-1.67) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread IND; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Dallas Mavericks — strengths & weaknesses
Dallas Mavericks (DAL) ranks #23 at -5.8 net — 111.2 offense, 117.0 defense, 101.6 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ plays fast (101.6 pace)
✗ bottom-third offense (111.2 pts/100)
Indiana Pacers — strengths & weaknesses
Indiana Pacers (IND) ranks #26 at -7.5 net — 111.2 offense, 118.7 defense, 101.1 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ plays fast (101.1 pace)
✗ bottom-third offense (111.2 pts/100)
✗ bottom-third defense (118.7 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
The worst faucet meets a leaky pipe: Dallas Mavericks (111.2 pts/100) may not punish Indiana Pacers's 118.7 allowed.
Rest gap: Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 — this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The key question is whether the weak offense can punish the leaky defense — usually it can't, and that decides the game.
The biggest swing factor is Dereck Lively II (Out for Dallas Mavericks — Foot Surgery).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: a mild lean at best — under the 5pt bar, not a play.
Rest
Dallas Mavericks: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Indiana Pacers: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Dallas Mavericks: Caleb Martin (Day-To-Day — Thumb Sprain (return 2026-10-23)); Jett Howard (Day-To-Day — Calf (return 2026-10-23)); Tarik Biberovic (Day-To-Day — Heel (return 2026-10-23)); Santi Aldama (Day-To-Day — Knee (return 2026-10-23)).
Indiana Pacers: Aaron Nesmith (Day-To-Day — Hamstring Strain (return 2026-10-23)); T.J. McConnell (Day-To-Day — Hamstring (return 2026-10-23)); Johnny Furphy (Out — Knee Surgery (return 2027-01-02)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -5.5
Model total 232.1 vs listed 234.5 (edge -2.4) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
ATS: ORL +1.5
Total: Under 237.5
ML: MIN (-125) · 52%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
-0.8 · win prob 48%
Model total
231.0 (edge -6.5)
DK line
spread 1.5 · O/U 237.5
ML -125 / +105
Line decomposition
eff edge -3.82 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+0.7 pts vs DK spread
Rest
MIN 1d rest · ORL 1d rest
Net rating (efficiency core)
MIN +4.1 · ORL +0.3
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 1 / 4
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Orlando Magic -0.8 (48% to win outright). DK has Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5. Model-vs-line gap: +0.7 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-3.82) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread MIN; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Minnesota Timberwolves — strengths & weaknesses
Minnesota Timberwolves (MIN) ranks #10 at +4.1 net — 117.1 offense, 113.0 defense, 100.7 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third defense (113.0 allowed/100)
✓ plays fast (100.7 pace)
Orlando Magic — strengths & weaknesses
Orlando Magic (ORL) ranks #17 at +0.3 net — 114.9 offense, 114.6 defense, 100.4 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test — a league-average profile.
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test — neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates — this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Donte DiVincenzo (Out for Minnesota Timberwolves — Achilles Surgery).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar — the price is the game.
Rest
Minnesota Timberwolves: 1d rest
Orlando Magic: 1d rest
Injuries
Minnesota Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo (Out — Achilles Surgery (return 2027-04-02)).
Orlando Magic: Jonathan Isaac (Day-To-Day — Knee (return 2026-10-23)); Anthony Black (Day-To-Day — Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-23)); Noah Penda (Out — Hamstring (return 2026-11-18)); Izaiyah Nelson (Out — Ankle Surgery (return 2026-11-18)).
Line movement
Spread steady at +1.5
Model total 231.0 vs listed 237.5 (edge -6.5) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 7:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
ATS: TOR -4.5
Total: Under 235.5
ML: TOR (-185) · 82%
⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
-12.2 · win prob 18%
Model total
231.3 (edge -4.2)
DK line
spread 4.5 · O/U 235.5
ML -185 / +154
Line decomposition
eff edge -15.15 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-7.7 pts vs DK spread
Rest
TOR 1d rest · WSH 1d rest
Net rating (efficiency core)
TOR +4.4 · WSH -10.8
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 1 / 3
📝 PAPER TRADE flag: model Toronto Raptors by 7.7 pts vs line (≥5 bar). Forward-test hypothesis only — not a bet, not an edge.
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Washington Wizards -12.2 (18% to win outright). DK has Toronto Raptors -4.5. Model-vs-line gap: -7.7 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-15.15) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread TOR; Locks at 6:30 PM ET.
Toronto Raptors — strengths & weaknesses
Toronto Raptors (TOR) ranks #9 at +4.4 net — 116.2 offense, 111.9 defense, 98.8 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third defense (111.9 allowed/100)
Washington Wizards — strengths & weaknesses
Washington Wizards (WSH) ranks #30 at -10.8 net — 111.6 offense, 122.4 defense, 101.4 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ plays fast (101.4 pace)
✗ bottom-third offense (111.6 pts/100)
✗ bottom-third defense (122.4 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test — neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates — this one is won in the margins.
The biggest swing factor is Nate Bittle (Out for Toronto Raptors — Foot).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: the 7.7pt disagreement on Toronto Raptors is the one to watch as the forward test — hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
Toronto Raptors: 1d rest
Washington Wizards: 1d rest
Injuries
Toronto Raptors: Nate Bittle (Out — Foot (return 2026-10-28)).
Washington Wizards: AJ Dybantsa (Day-To-Day — Ankle Sprain (return 2026-10-23)); Tristan Vukcevic (Out — Hip (return 2026-11-02)); Jamir Watkins (Out — Knee (return 2027-04-02)).
Line movement
Spread steady at +4.5
Model total 231.3 vs listed 235.5 (edge -4.2) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat
Fri Oct 23 · 8:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 8:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
ATS: DET +1.5
Total: Under 236.5
ML: DET (+105) · 62%
⏳ Locks at 7:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
-4.1 · win prob 38%
Model total
232.6 (edge -3.9)
DK line
spread -1.5 · O/U 236.5
ML +105 / -125
Line decomposition
eff edge -7.13 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-5.6 pts vs DK spread
Rest
DET 2d rest · MIA 1d rest
Net rating (efficiency core)
DET +8.2 · MIA +1.2
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 1 / 0
📝 PAPER TRADE flag: model Detroit Pistons by 5.6 pts vs line (≥5 bar). Forward-test hypothesis only — not a bet, not an edge.
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Miami Heat -4.1 (38% to win outright). DK has Miami Heat -1.5. Model-vs-line gap: -5.6 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-7.13) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread DET; Locks at 7:30 PM ET.
Detroit Pistons — strengths & weaknesses
Detroit Pistons (DET) ranks #2 at +8.2 net — 118.1 offense, 109.9 defense, 99.2 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (118.1 pts/100)
✓ top-third defense (109.9 allowed/100)
Miami Heat — strengths & weaknesses
Miami Heat (MIA) ranks #16 at +1.2 net — 116.0 offense, 114.9 defense, 103.5 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ plays fast (103.5 pace)
The exploitation map
No clear cross-matchups by the tercile test — neither team's calling card lines up against the other's soft spot.
Torque's read
No single matchup dominates — this one is won in the margins.
No single swing factor stands out — the inputs are all in the price.
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: the 5.6pt disagreement on Detroit Pistons is the one to watch as the forward test — hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
Detroit Pistons: 2d rest
Miami Heat: 1d rest
Injuries
Detroit Pistons: Taurean Prince (Day-To-Day — Personal (return 2026-10-23)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -1.5
Model total 232.6 vs listed 236.5 (edge -3.9) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
Fri Oct 23 · 9:30 PM EDT · 10/23 - 9:30 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
ATS: HOU +6.5
Total: Over 226.5
ML: SA (-270) · 63%
⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
Model margin (home)
+4.5 · win prob 63%
Model total
226.8 (edge +0.3)
DK line
spread -6.5 · O/U 226.5
ML +220 / -270
Line decomposition
eff edge +1.55 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-1.9 pts vs DK spread
Rest
HOU 0d rest 🔁 B2B · SA 1d rest
Net rating (efficiency core)
HOU +5.9 · SA +7.5
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 1 / 2
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes San Antonio Spurs +4.5 (63% to win outright). DK has San Antonio Spurs -6.5. Model-vs-line gap: -1.9 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+1.55) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread SA; Locks at 9:00 PM ET.
Houston Rockets — strengths & weaknesses
Houston Rockets (HOU) ranks #6 at +5.9 net — 119.1 offense, 113.1 defense, 96.2 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (119.1 pts/100)
✓ top-third defense (113.1 allowed/100)
San Antonio Spurs — strengths & weaknesses
San Antonio Spurs (SA) ranks #3 at +7.5 net — 118.8 offense, 111.3 defense, 100.1 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (118.8 pts/100)
✓ top-third defense (111.3 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Houston Rockets's elite offense runs into San Antonio Spurs's lockdown defense — strength on strength.
San Antonio Spurs's elite offense runs into Houston Rockets's lockdown defense — strength on strength.
Rest gap: Houston Rockets on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 — this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Strength on strength decides this one — the elite-offense-vs-lockdown-defense battle is the game.
The biggest swing factor is Jayden Quaintance (Out for San Antonio Spurs — Knee Surgery).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar — the price is the game.
Rest
Houston Rockets: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
San Antonio Spurs: 1d rest
Injuries
Houston Rockets: Steven Adams (Day-To-Day — Calf Soreness (return 2026-10-23)).
San Antonio Spurs: Tobias Harris (Day-To-Day — Calf Strain (return 2026-10-23)); Jayden Quaintance (Out — Knee Surgery (return 2026-12-03)).
Line movement
Spread -5.5 → -6.5
Model total 226.8 vs listed 226.5 (edge +0.3) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz
Fri Oct 23 · 9:30 PM EDT · 10/23 - 9:30 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
ATS: NO +4.5
Total: Under 241.5
ML: NO (+160) · 54%
⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
Model margin (home)
-1.3 · win prob 46%
Model total
237.8 (edge -3.7)
DK line
spread -4.5 · O/U 241.5
ML +160 / -192
Line decomposition
eff edge -4.28 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-5.8 pts vs DK spread
Rest
NO 0d rest 🔁 B2B · UTAH 0d rest 🔁 B2B
Net rating (efficiency core)
NO -4.4 · UTAH -8.7
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 0 / 3
📝 PAPER TRADE flag: model New Orleans Pelicans by 5.8 pts vs line (≥5 bar). Forward-test hypothesis only — not a bet, not an edge.
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Utah Jazz -1.3 (46% to win outright). DK has Utah Jazz -4.5. Model-vs-line gap: -5.8 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-4.28) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread NO; Locks at 9:00 PM ET.
New Orleans Pelicans — strengths & weaknesses
New Orleans Pelicans (NO) ranks #21 at -4.4 net — 114.4 offense, 118.9 defense, 100.5 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ plays fast (100.5 pace)
✗ bottom-third defense (118.9 allowed/100)
Utah Jazz — strengths & weaknesses
Utah Jazz (UTAH) ranks #27 at -8.7 net — 113.6 offense, 122.2 defense, 102.3 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ plays fast (102.3 pace)
✗ bottom-third offense (113.6 pts/100)
✗ bottom-third defense (122.2 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
The worst faucet meets a leaky pipe: Utah Jazz (113.6 pts/100) may not punish New Orleans Pelicans's 118.9 allowed.
Rest gap: New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 — this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
The key question is whether the weak offense can punish the leaky defense — usually it can't, and that decides the game.
The biggest swing factor is Jusuf Nurkic (Out for Utah Jazz — Foot).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: the 5.8pt disagreement on New Orleans Pelicans is the one to watch as the forward test — hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
New Orleans Pelicans: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Utah Jazz: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Utah Jazz: Tony Bradley (Day-To-Day — Quadriceps (return 2026-10-23)); Trey Alexander (Day-To-Day — Knee (return 2026-10-23)); Jusuf Nurkic (Out — Foot (return 2026-11-04)).
Line movement
Spread -5.5 → -4.5
Model total 237.8 vs listed 241.5 (edge -3.7) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 10:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
ATS: GS -3.5
Total: Under 235.5
ML: GS (-155) · 68%
⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
+6.4 · win prob 68%
Model total
231.4 (edge -4.1)
DK line
spread -3.5 · O/U 235.5
ML +130 / -155
Line decomposition
eff edge +3.42 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+2.9 pts vs DK spread
Rest
MEM 0d rest 🔁 B2B · GS 0d rest 🔁 B2B
Net rating (efficiency core)
MEM -4.9 · GS -1.5
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 1 / 5
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Golden State Warriors +6.4 (68% to win outright). DK has Golden State Warriors -3.5. Model-vs-line gap: +2.9 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+3.42) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread GS; Locks at 9:30 PM ET.
Memphis Grizzlies — strengths & weaknesses
Memphis Grizzlies (MEM) ranks #22 at -4.9 net — 113.2 offense, 118.1 defense, 101.3 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ plays fast (101.3 pace)
✗ bottom-third offense (113.2 pts/100)
✗ bottom-third defense (118.1 allowed/100)
Golden State Warriors — strengths & weaknesses
Golden State Warriors (GS) ranks #20 at -1.5 net — 114.6 offense, 116.1 defense, 99.0 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test — a league-average profile.
The exploitation map
Rest gap: Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 — this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Rest is the story tonight — a back-to-back against fresh legs, and the model's 0.0 rest price is the thing to be honest about.
The biggest swing factor is Kristaps Porzingis (Out for Golden State Warriors — Illness).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar — the price is the game.
Rest
Memphis Grizzlies: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Golden State Warriors: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Memphis Grizzlies: Isaiah Stewart (Day-To-Day — Ankle (return 2026-10-23)).
Golden State Warriors: Brandin Podziemski (Day-To-Day — Back Soreness (return 2026-10-23)); Charles Bassey (Day-To-Day — Knee (return 2026-10-23)); Kristaps Porzingis (Out — Illness (return 2026-12-01)); Moses Moody (Out — Knee Surgery (return 2026-12-01)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -3.5
Model total 231.4 vs listed 235.5 (edge -4.1) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 10:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
ATS: LAC +9.5
Total: Under 229.5
ML: LAL (-380) · 60%
⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
+3.5 · win prob 60%
Model total
227.8 (edge -1.7)
DK line
spread -9.5 · O/U 229.5
ML +300 / -380
Line decomposition
eff edge +0.46 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-6.0 pts vs DK spread
Rest
LAC 0d rest 🔁 B2B · LAL 0d rest 🔁 B2B
Net rating (efficiency core)
LAC +2.1 · LAL +2.6
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 0 / 3
📝 PAPER TRADE flag: model Los Angeles Clippers by 6.0 pts vs line (≥5 bar). Forward-test hypothesis only — not a bet, not an edge.
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 (60% to win outright). DK has Los Angeles Lakers -9.5. Model-vs-line gap: -6.0 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (+0.46) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread LAL; Locks at 9:30 PM ET.
Los Angeles Clippers — strengths & weaknesses
Los Angeles Clippers (LAC) ranks #14 at +2.1 net — 117.4 offense, 115.2 defense, 96.7 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
No clear strengths or weaknesses by the tercile test — a league-average profile.
Los Angeles Lakers — strengths & weaknesses
Los Angeles Lakers (LAL) ranks #12 at +2.6 net — 118.6 offense, 116.0 defense, 98.3 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third offense (118.6 pts/100)
The exploitation map
Rest gap: Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 — this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Rest is the story tonight — a back-to-back against fresh legs, and the model's 0.0 rest price is the thing to be honest about.
Rest is the swing factor — someone is on the second night of a back-to-back, and the model is blind to it.
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: the 6.0pt disagreement on Los Angeles Clippers is the one to watch as the forward test — hypothesis only, never a bet.
Rest
Los Angeles Clippers: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Los Angeles Lakers: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Los Angeles Lakers: Adou Thiero (Day-To-Day — Knee (return 2026-10-23)); Collin Sexton (Day-To-Day — Calf (return 2026-10-23)); Cameron Carr (Day-To-Day — Oblique Strain (return 2026-10-23)).
Line movement
Spread steady at -9.5
Model total 227.8 vs listed 229.5 (edge -1.7) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings
Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM EDT · 10/23 - 10:00 PM EDT
🎯 Model pick · ⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
ATS: POR -6.5
Total: Under 232.5
ML: POR (-258) · 75%
⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
Model margin (home)
-9.1 · win prob 25%
Model total
229.9 (edge -2.6)
DK line
spread 6.5 · O/U 232.5
ML -258 / +210
Line decomposition
eff edge -12.07 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-2.6 pts vs DK spread
Rest
POR 0d rest 🔁 B2B · SAC 0d rest 🔁 B2B
Net rating (efficiency core)
POR +1.4 · SAC -10.7
prior weight 96%
Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 3 / 4
📖 Full write-up
The model's read
The model makes Sacramento Kings -9.1 (25% to win outright). DK has Portland Trail Blazers -6.5. Model-vs-line gap: -2.6 pts.
By the inputs, the margin comes from efficiency (-12.07) + home court (3.0, untested prior); rest is priced at 0.0 (display only).
⏳ Live model pick: spread POR; Locks at 9:30 PM ET.
Portland Trail Blazers — strengths & weaknesses
Portland Trail Blazers (POR) ranks #15 at +1.4 net — 115.0 offense, 113.5 defense, 100.3 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✓ top-third defense (113.5 allowed/100)
Sacramento Kings — strengths & weaknesses
Sacramento Kings (SAC) ranks #29 at -10.7 net — 110.7 offense, 121.4 defense, 99.3 pace. 1 games played; priors carry 96% of the blend.
✗ bottom-third offense (110.7 pts/100)
✗ bottom-third defense (121.4 allowed/100)
The exploitation map
Rest gap: Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings on the second night of a back-to-back. The model prices rest at 0.0 — this is a hole in the number, not an edge.
Torque's read
Rest is the story tonight — a back-to-back against fresh legs, and the model's 0.0 rest price is the thing to be honest about.
The biggest swing factor is Branden Carlson (Out for Portland Trail Blazers — Concussion).
One honesty note: we're 96% on last season's priors — this is noise with a basketball game attached, not a formed view.
Verdict: nothing clears the bar — the price is the game.
Rest
Portland Trail Blazers: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Sacramento Kings: 0d rest (second night of a back-to-back — NOT priced into the model)
Injuries
Portland Trail Blazers: Chris Youngblood (Day-To-Day — Ankle Soreness (return 2026-10-23)); Branden Carlson (Out — Concussion (return 2026-10-23)); Shaedon Sharpe (Out — Knee Surgery (return 2027-03-02)).
Sacramento Kings: Malik Monk (Day-To-Day — Ankle Soreness (return 2026-10-23)); Ben Simmons (Out — Achilles Ruptured (return 2027-10-01)); Dylan Cardwell (Out — Calf Strain (return 2026-11-02)); Maxime Raynaud (Out — Knee Dislocated (return 2026-11-02)).
Line movement
Spread steady at +6.5
Model total 229.9 vs listed 232.5 (edge -2.6) — the model doesn't price totals into any pick; tracked for the forward test only.
Forward-test hypothesis only. These are the model's strongest reads for this slate — not bets, not edges. Locked picks are the official basis; pre-lock rows are early looks — not official. Display-only during the paper-trade phase (grading starts ~Dec 2026, judged after ~100 graded plays with CLV tracked).

Top spread reads ranked by edge vs DK line

#GameModel sideModel marginEdgeDK spreadBasis
#1Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT		Charlotte Hornets+5.5+8.02.5⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#2New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT		Boston Celtics+10.3+7.8-2.5⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#3Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT		Toronto Raptors-12.2-7.74.5⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#4Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM EDT		Los Angeles Clippers+3.5-6.0-9.5⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
#5New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz
Fri Oct 23 · 9:30 PM EDT		New Orleans Pelicans-1.3-5.8-4.5⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET

Top moneyline reads ranked by model win probability

#GameModel sideWin probDK MLBasis
#1Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT		Toronto Raptors82%-185⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#2New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT		Boston Celtics78%-135⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#3Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings
Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM EDT		Portland Trail Blazers75%-258⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET
#4Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Thu Oct 22 · 9:30 PM EDT		Oklahoma City Thunder75%-340⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
#5Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM EDT		Golden State Warriors68%-155⏳ Locks at 9:30 PM ET

Top totals reads ranked by edge vs DK total

#GameModel sideModel totalEdgeDK totalBasis
#1Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks
Fri Oct 23 · 4:00 PM EDT		under232.0-7.5239.5⏳ Locks at 3:30 PM ET
#2Minnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT		under231.0-6.5237.5⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#3Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Thu Oct 22 · 9:30 PM EDT		under230.5-5.0235.5⏳ Locks at 9:00 PM ET
#4Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards
Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM EDT		under231.3-4.2235.5⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
#5Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Thu Oct 22 · 7:00 PM EDT		under231.4-4.1235.5⏳ Locks at 6:30 PM ET
Forward-test hypothesis only. The value board is not a system, not bets, not edges. Judged after ~100 graded plays with CLV tracked. Bar: 5+ pt model-vs-line gap. Grading starts ~Dec 2026 (~15–20 games/team).
DateGameModel sideEdgeDKBasis
Fri Oct 23ATL @ CHACharlotte Hornets+8.02.5early look — not official
Fri Oct 23NY @ BOSBoston Celtics+7.8-2.5early look — not official
Fri Oct 23TOR @ WSHToronto Raptors-7.74.5early look — not official
Fri Oct 23LAC @ LALLos Angeles Clippers-6.0-9.5early look — not official
Fri Oct 23NO @ UTAHNew Orleans Pelicans-5.8-4.5early look — not official
Fri Oct 23DET @ MIADetroit Pistons-5.6-1.5early look — not official

All games, model vs line

GameModel marginDK spreadEdgeModel totalO/UTot edge
CLE @ PHI-1.0-3.5-4.5231.4235.5-4.1
DEN @ OKC+8.9-8.5+0.5230.5235.5-5.0
CHI @ MIL+2.9-1.5+1.4232.0239.5-7.5
NY @ BOS+10.3-2.5+7.8224.0223.5+0.5
ATL @ CHA+5.52.5+8.0230.3226.5+3.8
DAL @ IND+1.3-5.5-4.2232.1234.5-2.4
MIN @ ORL-0.81.5+0.7231.0237.5-6.5
TOR @ WSH-12.24.5-7.7231.3235.5-4.2
DET @ MIA-4.1-1.5-5.6232.6236.5-3.9
HOU @ SA+4.5-6.5-1.9226.8226.5+0.3
NO @ UTAH-1.3-4.5-5.8237.8241.5-3.7
MEM @ GS+6.4-3.5+2.9231.4235.5-4.1
LAC @ LAL+3.5-9.5-6.0227.8229.5-1.7
POR @ SAC-9.16.5-2.6229.9232.5-2.6
🌊 Money flow day by day
consensus league avg ticket% vs handle% on the favorite · gap = sharp divergence
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%10/2110/2210/23Tickets on fav 10/21: 67.6%Tickets on fav 10/22: 70.5%Tickets on fav 10/23: 63.5%Handle on fav 10/21: 59.0%Handle on fav 10/22: 61.0%Handle on fav 10/23: 64.5%Tickets on favHandle on fav

10/21: 11g 3 lopsided 3 sharp-div 6 2-src · 10/22: 2g 1 lopsided 1 sharp-div 0 2-src · 10/23: 2g 0 lopsided 0 sharp-div 0 2-src

3 days of splits so far — early-season averages are thin; a 2-game day swings wildly.

Lopsided = a side drew 75%+ of the money. Sharp-div = handle% − tickets% ≥ 15 on a team. Favorite = negative-moneyline side (pick’em games excluded from favorite averages). 2-src = games covered by both sources that day.

📊 Bet differential day by day
tickets vs money vs over% — and the money-minus-tickets gap
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%10/2110/2210/23Tickets (bets%) 10/21: 67.6%Tickets (bets%) 10/22: 70.5%Tickets (bets%) 10/23: 63.5%Money (handle%) 10/21: 59.0%Money (handle%) 10/22: 61.0%Money (handle%) 10/23: 64.5%Over% 10/21: 45.8%Over% 10/22: 100.0%Tickets (bets%)Money (handle%)Over%
Bet differential (handle% − tickets%)
positive = money heavier than tickets
+9.5%−9.5%10/21: -8.6pp10/21-8.610/22: -9.5pp10/22-9.510/23: +1.0pp10/23+1.0
📅 Day detail
every game that day — consensus of the reporting sources

Day

Sources: 2 src = both books reported; Δ = max ticket% disagreement between the sources on the moneyline sides. 1 src = only one book reported — consensus equals that book, treated as single-book, not consensus.

🏀 Team splits
that team's consensus tickets vs money, day by day

Team

Splits: consensus: cleatz.com + wiseguyteam.com (DraftKings). Display only — not a model input.

Paper-trade phase. Grading starts once samples stabilize (~15–20 games per team, early December 2026). Until then: display only, nothing graded, nothing claimed.
Record

SU / ATS / totals record will appear here once grading begins. Basis will be fixed at that point and never moved mid-flight.

The core question

Not "are we smarter than the line." Instead: "what's in the line, and which part can we see through?"

line = efficiency truth + rest/B2B state + public shade + brand tax + key-number rounding + vig.
The model projects only the parts it can measure honestly (efficiency truth, schedule state) and keeps them separable from the parts it can't (shade, brand tax, vig) — so every gap vs the line can be asked which component is this?

Pick-lock rule

Picks lock 30 minutes before tipoff. At that moment the model's spread side, total side, and moneyline side are frozen together with the DraftKings spread, total, and moneyline as they stand then.

Efficiency core

Net rating (offensive − defensive rating, pace-adjusted) blended: curr_w = min(1, gp/20) * 0.8 ; prior_w = 1 - curr_w. Prior = 2025-26 final ratings. HFA = 3.0 pts (fixed prior, untested). Win prob via normal CDF, σ=13.5 (untested).

Every factor beyond the efficiency core is walk-forward tested before wiring. Nothing enters the projection on theory alone. Rest/B2B edge is currently 0.0 — displayed, logged daily to the rest log for the future backtest, not priced in.

Honest limits

Team net ratings

TeamNetORtgDRtgPaceGPPrior wt
OKCOklahoma City Thunder+11.21118.6107.499.5196%
DETDetroit Pistons+8.19118.1109.999.2196%
SASan Antonio Spurs+7.50118.8111.3100.1196%
BOSBoston Celtics+7.45120.6113.194.9196%
NYKNew York Knicks+6.00118.9112.997.1196%
HOUHouston Rockets+5.92119.1113.196.2196%
DENDenver Nuggets+5.20122.6117.498.40100%
CHACharlotte Hornets+5.08119.0114.096.9196%
TORToronto Raptors+4.37116.2111.998.8196%
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+4.12117.1113.0100.7196%
CLECleveland Cavaliers+4.10119.2115.199.90100%
LALLos Angeles Lakers+2.61118.6116.098.3196%
ATLAtlanta Hawks+2.56116.3113.7102.0196%
LACLos Angeles Clippers+2.14117.4115.296.7196%
PORPortland Trail Blazers+1.41115.0113.5100.3196%
MIAMiami Heat+1.16116.0114.9103.5196%
ORLOrlando Magic+0.32114.9114.6100.4196%
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+0.13114.9114.799.6196%
PHXPhoenix Suns-0.26114.2114.597.2196%
GSGolden State Warriors-1.47114.6116.199.0196%
NONew Orleans Pelicans-4.43114.4118.9100.5196%
MEMMemphis Grizzlies-4.88113.2118.1101.3196%
DALDallas Mavericks-5.82111.2117.0101.6196%
CHIChicago Bulls-6.48111.9118.3102.7196%
MILMilwaukee Bucks-6.61113.0119.697.8196%
INDIndiana Pacers-7.47111.2118.7101.1196%
UTAHUtah Jazz-8.65113.6122.2102.3196%
BKNBrooklyn Nets-10.17108.5118.797.2196%
SACSacramento Kings-10.68110.7121.499.3196%
WSHWashington Wizards-10.76111.6122.4101.4196%