NBA Model

Paper-trade phase: ratings run on 2025-26 priors + early-season noise. Rest/B2B shown and logged, not priced. Value flags are hypotheses, never bets.

Atlanta Hawks @

Orlando Magic

Wed Oct 21 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/21 - 7:00 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+1.2 · win prob 54%

Model total
231.5 (edge -2.0)

DK line
spread -2.5 · O/U 233.5
ML +110 / -130

Line decomposition
eff edge -1.82 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-1.3 pts vs DK spread

Rest
ATL season opener · ORL season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
ATL +2.4 · ORL +0.6
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 2 / 4

Milwaukee Bucks @

Washington Wizards

Wed Oct 21 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/21 - 7:00 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+9.3 · win prob 76%

Model total
226.4 (edge -12.1)

DK line
spread -4.5 · O/U 238.5
ML +145 / -175

Line decomposition
eff edge +6.32 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+4.8 pts vs DK spread

Rest
MIL season opener · WSH season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
MIL -6.4 · WSH +0.0
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 1 / 0

Minnesota Timberwolves @

Miami Heat

Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM EDT · 10/21 - 7:30 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+1.9 · win prob 56%

Model total
235.2 (edge -5.3)

DK line
spread -1.5 · O/U 240.5
ML +102 / -122

Line decomposition
eff edge -1.12 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+0.4 pts vs DK spread

Rest
MIN season opener · MIA season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
MIN +3.3 · MIA +2.2
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 1 / 1

Charlotte Hornets @

Brooklyn Nets

Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM EDT · 10/21 - 7:30 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+3.0 · win prob 59%

Model total
226.0 (edge +6.5)

DK line
spread 1.5 · O/U 219.5
ML -118 / -102

Line decomposition
eff edge +0.00 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+4.5 pts vs DK spread

Rest
CHA season opener · BKN season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
CHA +0.0 · BKN +0.0
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 0 / 0

Chicago Bulls @

Toronto Raptors

Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM EDT · 10/21 - 7:30 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+11.0 · win prob 79%

Model total
231.0 (edge -6.5)

DK line
spread -10.5 · O/U 237.5
ML +360 / -470

Line decomposition
eff edge +8.04 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+0.5 pts vs DK spread

Rest
CHI season opener · TOR season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
CHI -5.1 · TOR +2.9
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 7 / 1

Utah Jazz @

Memphis Grizzlies

Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM EDT · 10/21 - 8:00 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+5.3 · win prob 65%

Model total
238.3 (edge -3.2)

DK line
spread -1.5 · O/U 241.5
ML +105 / -125

Line decomposition
eff edge +2.34 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+3.8 pts vs DK spread

Rest
UTAH season opener · MEM season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
UTAH -8.2 · MEM -5.9
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 3 / 1

Indiana Pacers @

New Orleans Pelicans

Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM EDT · 10/21 - 8:00 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+6.4 · win prob 68%

Model total
233.0 (edge -5.5)

DK line
spread 3.5 · O/U 238.5
ML -148 / +124

Line decomposition
eff edge +3.42 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+9.9 pts vs DK spread

Rest
IND season opener · NO season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
IND -7.9 · NO -4.5
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 3 / 0

📝 PAPER TRADE flag: model New Orleans Pelicans by 9.9 pts vs line (≥5 bar). Forward-test hypothesis only — not a bet, not an edge.

Dallas Mavericks @

Houston Rockets

Wed Oct 21 · 8:30 PM EDT · 10/21 - 8:30 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+13.6 · win prob 84%

Model total
227.2 (edge -3.3)

DK line
spread -9.5 · O/U 230.5
ML +330 / -425

Line decomposition
eff edge +10.58 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+4.1 pts vs DK spread

Rest
DAL season opener · HOU season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
DAL -5.3 · HOU +5.4
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 5 / 2

Golden State Warriors @

Los Angeles Lakers

Wed Oct 21 · 10:00 PM EDT · 10/21 - 10:00 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+5.4 · win prob 65%

Model total
229.5 (edge -5.0)

DK line
spread -6.5 · O/U 234.5
ML +190 / -230

Line decomposition
eff edge +2.37 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-1.1 pts vs DK spread

Rest
GS season opener · LAL season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
GS -0.6 · LAL +1.8
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 6 / 3

Phoenix Suns @

Portland Trail Blazers

Wed Oct 21 · 10:00 PM EDT · 10/21 - 10:00 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+2.7 · win prob 58%

Model total
228.1 (edge -2.4)

DK line
spread -2.5 · O/U 230.5
ML +120 / -142

Line decomposition
eff edge -0.30 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+0.2 pts vs DK spread

Rest
PHX season opener · POR season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
PHX +0.0 · POR -0.3
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 0 / 5

Sacramento Kings @

Los Angeles Clippers

Wed Oct 21 · 10:30 PM EDT · 10/21 - 10:30 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+14.1 · win prob 85%

Model total
228.1 (edge +1.6)

DK line
spread -5.5 · O/U 226.5
ML +154 / -185

Line decomposition
eff edge +11.06 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+8.6 pts vs DK spread

Rest
SAC season opener · LAC season opener

Net rating (efficiency core)
SAC -10.1 · LAC +1.2
prior weight 100%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 4 / 0

📝 PAPER TRADE flag: model Los Angeles Clippers by 8.6 pts vs line (≥5 bar). Forward-test hypothesis only — not a bet, not an edge.

Cleveland Cavaliers @

Philadelphia 76ers

Thu Oct 22 · 7:00 PM EDT · 10/22 - 7:00 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
-1.0 · win prob 47%

Model total
231.4 (edge -4.1)

DK line
spread -2.5 · O/U 235.5
ML +130 / -155

Line decomposition
eff edge -3.96 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
-3.5 pts vs DK spread

Rest
CLE season opener · PHI 1d rest

Net rating (efficiency core)
CLE +4.1 · PHI +0.1
prior weight 96%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 3 / 4

Denver Nuggets @

Oklahoma City Thunder

Thu Oct 22 · 9:30 PM EDT · 10/22 - 9:30 PM EDT

Model margin (home)
+8.9 · win prob 75%

Model total
230.5 (edge -5.0)

DK line
spread -7.5 · O/U 235.5
ML +250 / -298

Line decomposition
eff edge +5.95 + HFA 3.0 + rest (0.0, untested)
+1.4 pts vs DK spread

Rest
DEN season opener · OKC 0d rest 🔁 B2B

Net rating (efficiency core)
DEN +5.2 · OKC +11.2
prior weight 96%

Injuries listed (out/doubtful counts): 2 / 3

Date	Game	Model side	Edge	DK
Wed Oct 21	IND @ NO	New Orleans Pelicans	+9.9	3.5
Wed Oct 21	SAC @ LAC	Los Angeles Clippers	+8.6	-5.5

Game	Model margin	DK spread	Edge	Model total	O/U	Tot edge
ATL @ ORL	+1.2	-2.5	-1.3	231.5	233.5	-2.0
MIL @ WSH	+9.3	-4.5	+4.8	226.4	238.5	-12.1
MIN @ MIA	+1.9	-1.5	+0.4	235.2	240.5	-5.3
CHA @ BKN	+3.0	1.5	+4.5	226.0	219.5	+6.5
CHI @ TOR	+11.0	-10.5	+0.5	231.0	237.5	-6.5
UTAH @ MEM	+5.3	-1.5	+3.8	238.3	241.5	-3.2
IND @ NO	+6.4	3.5	+9.9	233.0	238.5	-5.5
DAL @ HOU	+13.6	-9.5	+4.1	227.2	230.5	-3.3
GS @ LAL	+5.4	-6.5	-1.1	229.5	234.5	-5.0
PHX @ POR	+2.7	-2.5	+0.2	228.1	230.5	-2.4
SAC @ LAC	+14.1	-5.5	+8.6	228.1	226.5	+1.6
CLE @ PHI	-1.0	-2.5	-3.5	231.4	235.5	-4.1
DEN @ OKC	+8.9	-7.5	+1.4	230.5	235.5	-5.0

The core question

Not "are we smarter than the line." Instead: "what's in the line, and which part can we see through?"

line = efficiency truth + rest/B2B state + public shade + brand tax + key-number rounding + vig.
The model projects only the parts it can measure honestly (efficiency truth, schedule state) and keeps them separable from the parts it can't (shade, brand tax, vig) — so every gap vs the line can be asked which component is this?

Efficiency core

Net rating (offensive − defensive rating, pace-adjusted) blended: curr_w = min(1, gp/20) * 0.8 ; prior_w = 1 - curr_w. Prior = 2025-26 final ratings. HFA = 3.0 pts (fixed prior, untested). Win prob via normal CDF, σ=13.5 (untested).

Every factor beyond the efficiency core is walk-forward tested before wiring. Nothing enters the projection on theory alone. Rest/B2B edge is currently 0.0 — displayed, logged daily to the rest log for the future backtest, not priced in.

Honest limits

Season tipped off 2026-10-20: ratings are heavily weighted to 2025-26 priors; paper-trade phase until ~15-20 games per team (early December).
HFA=3.0 and margin sigma=13.5 are priors, NOT backtested. Rest/B2B edge is 0.0 (display only) until walk-forward tested.
Value board is a forward-test hypothesis (5+ pt bar, ~100 graded plays, CLV tracked). Never presented as bets or edges.
NBA.com stats API times out from this VM; ratings source is basketball-reference advanced team stats.

Team net ratings

	Team	Net	ORtg	DRtg	Pace	GP	Prior wt
OKC	Oklahoma City Thunder	+11.21	118.6	107.4	99.5	1	96%
DET	Detroit Pistons	+8.19	118.1	109.9	99.2	1	96%
SA	San Antonio Spurs	+7.50	118.8	111.3	100.1	1	96%
BOS	Boston Celtics	+7.45	120.6	113.1	94.9	1	96%
NYK	New York Knicks	+6.00	118.9	112.9	97.1	1	96%
HOU	Houston Rockets	+5.40	118.6	113.2	96.1	0	100%
DEN	Denver Nuggets	+5.20	122.6	117.4	98.4	0	100%
CHO	Charlotte Hornets	+5.00	119.4	114.4	96.8	0	100%
CLE	Cleveland Cavaliers	+4.10	119.2	115.1	99.9	0	100%
MIN	Minnesota Timberwolves	+3.30	116.8	113.5	100.5	0	100%
TOR	Toronto Raptors	+2.90	115.9	113.0	98.4	0	100%
ATL	Atlanta Hawks	+2.40	116.1	113.7	101.7	0	100%
MIA	Miami Heat	+2.20	116.7	114.5	103.4	0	100%
LAL	Los Angeles Lakers	+1.80	118.2	116.4	98.3	0	100%
PHO	Phoenix Suns	+1.50	115.4	113.9	97.2	0	100%
LAC	Los Angeles Clippers	+1.20	117.3	116.1	96.5	0	100%
ORL	Orlando Magic	+0.60	114.9	114.3	100.0	0	100%
PHI	Philadelphia 76ers	+0.13	114.9	114.7	99.6	1	96%
POR	Portland Trail Blazers	-0.30	114.4	114.7	100.5	0	100%
GS	Golden State Warriors	-0.60	115.0	115.6	99.0	0	100%
NO	New Orleans Pelicans	-4.50	114.4	118.9	100.3	0	100%
CHI	Chicago Bulls	-5.10	113.0	118.1	102.5	0	100%
DAL	Dallas Mavericks	-5.30	111.2	116.5	101.7	0	100%
MEM	Memphis Grizzlies	-5.90	112.9	118.8	101.3	0	100%
MIL	Milwaukee Bucks	-6.40	112.9	119.3	97.6	0	100%
IND	Indiana Pacers	-7.90	110.9	118.8	101.0	0	100%
UTAH	Utah Jazz	-8.20	114.1	122.3	102.3	0	100%
SAC	Sacramento Kings	-10.10	111.4	121.5	99.2	0	100%
BRK	Brooklyn Nets	-10.30	108.7	119.0	97.1	0	100%
WAS	Washington Wizards	-11.70	111.0	122.7	101.4	0	100%

🏀 NBA Model 2026-27 · paper trade · generated 2026-10-21 17:16 ET

All games, model vs line

Team net ratings